Morocco’s late-season heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense

Temperatures above 45°C are usually associated with the height of Morocco’s summer. Yet in early September, several cities have broken temperature records for the month, as unusually hot conditions continue across large parts of the country.

The current episode is being driven by atmospheric conditions pushing Saharan heat northward, Houcine Youabed, Communications Director at Morocco’s Directorate General of Meteorology (DGM), told Yabiladi on Monday. The extension of the Saharan thermal low, combined with southerly and southeasterly Chergui winds, is carrying hot air toward several inland regions and pushing temperatures between 5°C and 12°C above seasonal averages, he explained.

These conditions have already produced new September records. On September 3, «temperatures reached 45.1°C in Kenitra, surpassing the previous September record set in 2006», Youabed said. Salé recorded 44.3°C, exceeding its previous September record from 2021, while Sidi Slimane reached 47.1°C, setting a new record for the month at the station.

For now, the heat is expected to persist, particularly across inland areas. The DGM forecasts maximum temperatures of between 41°C and 46°C in parts of the southern provinces, the southeast, inland Souss, Tadla and Chaouia. At the same time, thunderstorms and localized showers could develop over mountainous and inland areas.

Temperatures are expected to begin declining gradually from Tuesday across much of Morocco, although «relatively warm to hot conditions» should persist in the southeast, Souss and inland areas of the southern provinces.

But that decline is not expected to mark the definitive end of the heat. Temperatures are forecast to rise again toward the end of next week and remain above seasonal averages during the second week of September. Youabed describes this temporary cooling followed by renewed warming as a «fluctuating pattern» characteristic of this transitional period, before cooler Atlantic and northern air masses gradually begin to gain ground with the approach of autumn.

late-season heatwaves becoming more frequent and intense

It is this persistence of high temperatures into September that places the current episode within a broader climate pattern. Long-term observations in Morocco show that periods of extreme heat are increasingly extending beyond the traditional summer season, with late-season heatwaves becoming more frequent and intense than in previous decades.

That does not mean every September will experience exceptional temperatures, DGM stresses. Rather, the period during which such episodes can occur appears to be stretching further into the year.

Climate change helps explain that broader shift, although Youabed cautions that no individual weather event can be attributed exclusively to global warming. What scientists can observe, he said, is that «the continued occurrence of high temperatures later in the year is consistent with scientifically documented climate trends».

Those trends are already visible in temperature records across Morocco. Most meteorological stations are recording increases in average monthly maximum temperatures, although the rate varies by season. During some months, Youabed noted, the observed warming has at times exceeded «2°C per decade».

Morocco is also part of a region particularly exposed to rising temperatures. North Africa and the Mediterranean are considered climate change «hotspots», where warming is occurring faster than the global average. Across Africa, average temperatures have recently stood around 1.3°C above the 1981–2010 reference period, while heatwaves and agricultural droughts are expected to intensify in the absence of significant reductions in global emissions.

Geography, however, means the effects are not felt equally across Morocco. Inland, eastern and southeastern regions are particularly exposed because they are farther from the Atlantic Ocean’s moderating influence. Coastal areas generally benefit from that maritime effect, making episodes of extreme heat there typically less intense and shorter-lived, he concluded.