Morocco: Frequent autumn showers and a dry winter [Interview]

The start of September in Morocco has seen repeated weather alerts, with a notable mix of heatwaves and thundery showers. Could these events be tied to El Niño?

Indeed, the early days of September remain hot, as if we’re still deep in summer. This isn’t unusual, considering the astronomical summer lasts until September 21. As such, temperatures stay elevated. However, the intensity is notable.

To understand this phenomenon, we must consider that global warming has transformed our climate. The climate we once knew is gone; we now exist in an altered state, evolving continually since at least 2006-2010.

This new climate keeps surpassing temperature thresholds due to a long-standing energy imbalance on our planet. The critical issue is that this imbalance neither halts nor stabilizes. As it persists, temperatures will rise accordingly.

This is a global issue, impacting numerous regions, particularly countries within our vicinity. How is it manifesting in North Africa?

On a synoptic scale, North Africa and the Iberian Peninsula stand out, as they continue to feel the heat from an excessive energy balance. Meanwhile, France exhibits a negative balance, possibly experiencing cooler temperatures.

This global energy ridge allows high energy levels to persist, followed by the establishment of the Azores anticyclone in this region. Consequently, we are experiencing high temperatures due to this energy balance, compounded by global warming and El Niño.

The accumulation of heat in the equatorial zone is transferring toward subtropical regions, including ours, strengthened by the Azores anticyclone imposing upward flows that physically increase temperatures.

With the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) forecasts indicating the phenomenon will continue until 2027, should we anticipate a dry winter, possibly unusually warm with scarce rainfall, diverging from this year’s cold season?

Currently, El Niño is unfolding as predicted, influenced by global warming. It’s important to note that El Niño doesn’t create heat but redistributes it from the western Pacific. This heat now extends across the equatorial zone, enlarging the contact area between the ocean and the atmosphere.

This has resulted in a massive transfer of heat, pushing energy both north and south, leading to above-normal global temperatures, including in Morocco.

Another development could occur with a shift in the Azores anticyclone due to El Niño, which transfers energy and bolsters the Azores high. This strengthens the likelihood of diminished rainfall, returning us to another phase of drought, potentially breaking the rains of late 2025 and early 2026.

Forecasts also indicate a high frequency of showers during the autumn, as persistent atmospheric heat combines with water vapor. Under these circumstances, any temperature drop could trigger severe showers with damaging effects.