Sadc braces for severe 2026 El Niño threat

The Southern African Development Community (Sadc) is bracing for a potentially severe El Niño during the 2026/27 season, with the regional bloc warning that another major climate shock could deepen food insecurity, increase costs and wipe out hard-won development gains.

Sadc executive secretary Elias Magosi said the region is facing a convergence of climate, economic and humanitarian pressures that requires governments to move beyond responding to disasters after they occur and invest in resilience before they strike.

Addressing the Sadc Council of Ministers in Durban on Wednesday, Magosi said seasonal forecasts indicated a high likelihood of a severe El Niño event during the coming season.

He warned that its intensity and effect could surpass those of the devastating 2023/24 El Niño, potentially worsening food and nutrition insecurity while pushing up fertiliser and energy costs.

The warning comes as the region’s agricultural sector begins to recover from previous climate shocks.

The combination of disease outbreaks and climate shocks is putting additional pressure on already vulnerable food systems and reinforcing the need for stronger regional co-ordination

Agriculture remains the backbone of Sadc economies and the main source of livelihoods for more than 70% of the region’s population. Agricultural growth recovered to an estimated 2% to 3% in 2025 after negative or stagnant growth in 2024.

The number of food-insecure people across the region also fell by 16%, suggesting that recovery efforts were beginning to bear fruit. But Magosi warned that the recovery remains vulnerable. Recent foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks have disrupted livestock production and related trade, threatening livelihoods, nutrition and market access.

The combination of disease outbreaks and climate shocks is putting additional pressure on already vulnerable food systems and reinforcing the need for stronger regional co-ordination.

Magosi said the region needs to change its approach to disasters. Rather than simply responding when floods, droughts or other emergencies occur, Sadc should invest in:

• early-warning systems;
• anticipatory planning;
• climate-resilient infrastructure; and
• disaster-risk financing.

The Sadc Humanitarian Emergency Operations Centre in Nacala, Mozambique, will be critical to this effort, he said, but will require adequate financial and human resources to co-ordinate contingency planning, emergency response and recovery.

The climate warning is particularly significant because Sadc has already experienced devastating floods this year. Magosi said the floods had:

• claimed lives;
• damaged critical infrastructure;
• displaced communities; and
• disrupted trade in parts of the region.

Sadc has made progress in attracting investment, with foreign direct investment increasing 44% to $11bn in 2025, but manufacturing’s contribution to GDP declined from 11.3% to 10.9%

These shocks threaten not only food security but also the wider regional development agenda. Climate-related disruption can undermine industrialisation, regional integration and inclusive economic growth by:

• damaging infrastructure;
• increasing the cost of production; and
• placing additional pressure on governments already operating within constrained fiscal environments.

Magosi argued that young people should be central to the region’s response. Nearly 75% of Sadc’s population is below the age of 35, presenting an opportunity to use the region’s youthful population to transform agriculture.

Young people, he said, should not be viewed merely as beneficiaries of agricultural programmes but as entrepreneurs, innovators and future custodians of food systems.

Greater investment in youth-centred agribusiness could help:

• create jobs;
• improve productivity;
• increase value addition; and
• accelerate the adoption of climate-smart agriculture.

The region’s food-security challenge is also tied to broader questions about economic resilience. Sadc has made progress in attracting investment, with foreign direct investment increasing 44% to $11bn in 2025, but manufacturing’s contribution to GDP declined from 11.3% to 10.9%.

Magosi has argued that stronger regional value chains and investment in productive sectors are necessary if Sadc is to build economies capable of absorbing external shocks.

The region is also confronting a separate public health threat. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) continues to respond to a Bundibugyo virus disease (a form of Ebola) outbreak that has caused deaths and placed additional pressure on its health system.

Magosi expressed solidarity with DRC and thanked member states and international partners supporting the response. He said the outbreak demonstrates why regional co-operation is essential to dealing with public health emergencies that cross national borders.

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