Libya enters new political phase with two-year election roadmap

CAIRO: Libya has entered a potentially decisive new phase in its long-running political transition, after representatives of the country’s rival institutions signed an agreement setting out a road map for presidential and parliamentary elections within two years.

The agreement, signed in Tripoli on Sunday under the auspices of the UN Support Mission in Libya, is intended to resolve disputes over electoral legislation, reform the national elections body and create the conditions for ending more than a decade of competing governments and divided institutions.

The ceremony was attended by Hanna Tetteh, the UN secretary-general’s special representative for Libya and head of UNSMIL.

It followed months of negotiations involving what became known as the “4+4” format, bringing together two representatives from each of Libya’s four main power centers: the Government of National Unity, the High Council of State, the House of Representatives and the Libyan National Army.

Under the agreement, legislative and presidential elections are to be held within a period of no more than 24 months under a single executive authority and unified national institutions.

If that timetable cannot be met, the parties are expected to work with UNSMIL on an alternative mechanism to achieve the electoral objective.

The agreement is presented as an attempt to break the cycle of temporary political arrangements that has defined Libya since the fall of Muammar Qaddafi in 2011.

Previous efforts to establish a durable political settlement repeatedly stalled over disputes surrounding electoral laws, institutional legitimacy, control of state bodies and the distribution of power.

Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh, the Libyan prime minister, welcomed the agreement, describing it as an important step toward ending the country’s prolonged transitional period.

“We have advocated from the beginning for ending the transitional phases and moving toward elections,” he said in a statement.

Libyans themselves must ultimately decide the country’s future, he added.

“The decision should belong to the Libyan people through elections that end the state of division and grant all institutions their true legitimacy from the will of the citizens,” Dbeibeh said.

He expressed hope that the agreement would become a practical step toward national elections and place Libya on a more stable path.

Aguila Saleh, speaker of the House of Representatives, also welcomed efforts aimed at reaching a comprehensive political settlement. He said the House supported initiatives intended to end political divisions and facilitate simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections.

The House would consider the agreement once it was formally presented and take whatever steps it deemed necessary to protect the public interest and preserve state stability, he added.

He also expressed readiness to engage with efforts to unify Libya’s institutions and create the political conditions necessary for elections. Such a process, he said, could finally end a succession of transitional arrangements and allow Libyans to choose their representatives through free and fair elections.

The challenge, however, does not simply lie in reaching an agreement. Libya has seen numerous political road maps announced and abandoned over the past 15 years, with rival institutions frequently failing to implement commitments made during negotiations.

That history means implementation is the central test of the latest initiative.

Rakha Ahmed Hassan, a former Egyptian assistant foreign minister and the country’s ambassador to Kazakhstan, told Arab News that the agreement represented “a step in the right direction” for Libya but warned that previous UN-led efforts had repeatedly faltered. He highlighted earlier attempts by UN envoys, including Martin Kobler and Ghassan Salame, to broker political settlements between Libya’s competing factions.

“The important issue is implementation,” Hassan said. He warned that the road map would depend on all Libyan parties adhering to their commitments and avoiding delays that might once again derail the electoral process.

Salah Halima, another former Egyptian assistant foreign minister and former ambassador to Sudan, said the agreement could help unify Libya’s divided institutions after years of instability.

He said the UN had almost certainly consulted countries neighboring Libya, and other states with a direct interest in the country’s future before the agreement was signed. The electoral road map, he said, offered a potential route toward the restoration of unified state institutions after more than 15 years of fragmentation.

Mohammed El-Shazly, a member of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs and former ambassador, said political will would ultimately determine whether the latest initiative succeeded. Years of conflict and political rivalry had inflicted enormous damage on Libya despite the country’s substantial natural resources, he added, and disputes between Libyan institutions had repeatedly obstructed previous settlements.

“The issue is not merely an agreement on paper,” El-Shazly told Arab News. “What is required is a genuine desire on the part of the institutions to work seriously to implement it.”

Tetteh described the agreement as an important step toward overcoming the political and institutional deadlock that has obstructed Libya’s electoral process.

She said responsibility now rested with the Libyan parties to translate the agreement into concrete measures by adopting it at the national level, implementing the agreed electoral framework and creating the institutional and political conditions required for credible elections.

The UN, she said, would continue to facilitate and support the process, while emphasizing that Libya’s political future ultimately belonged to the Libyan people.

The agreement follows months of negotiations between the parties. The first meeting of the smaller dialogue format took place in Rome on April 29, followed by seven meetings in Tunis between May and August.

Those discussions culminated in the signing of the Tripoli agreement and the commitment to hold elections within 24 months.

The renewed push for a settlement also comes amid increased regional and international attention on Libya. Last month, Arab League Secretary-General Nabil Fahmy met Massad Boulos, senior adviser to US President Donald Trump on Arab and African affairs, to discuss developments in the country.

Fahmy reaffirmed the Arab League’s support for a Libyan-led political process for the unification of state institutions and the holding of presidential and parliamentary elections as soon as possible.

For Libya, the stakes are high. The country remains divided between competing political and security institutions despite repeated international attempts to establish a unified government and organize national elections.

The latest agreement offers another opportunity to move beyond that stalemate. But diplomats and analysts said its significance will ultimately be determined not by the signing ceremony in Tripoli, but by whether Libya’s political factions are prepared to implement what they have agreed.

After years of failed road maps and postponed elections, the central question is whether the country’s competing institutions can finally move from negotiation to execution — and allow Libyans themselves to decide who governs them.