America saw no more oil. China saw an Atlantic military fortress
For decades, Equatorial Guinea mattered to Western powers largely because of its oil. But the small Central African country is no longer the oil producer it once was. After reaching peak production in 2007, its oil production entered a steep decline as mature fields started to deplete. The sector’s changing environment has already reshaped Western companies’ involvement.
For instance, in 2024, Exxon Mobil ended more than three decades of operations in the country and withdrew. Although Western commercial interest has declined, China has continued to strengthen its relationship with Malabo. Unlike the United States’s new policy on Africa, which centers on economic interests, China is taking a broader approach, vowing to help Equatorial Guinea diversify its economy and build its public health system.
Washington should not allow Equatorial Guinea’s declining oil production to become declining American engagement, because the country’s growing need for post-oil investment is allowing China to expand its political influence and potentially its military presence on Africa’s Atlantic coast. Despite U.S. concerns of rampant corruption and human rights violations in the country, it should recognize that disengagement will not improve Equatorial Guinea’s governance; it will only give Beijing more room to expand its influence in a strategically important country.
Once one of Central Africa’s poorest countries, Equatorial Guinea’s oil boom in the mid-1990s brought billions in foreign investment and made it one of Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest producers. Oil rents enriched the ruling elite while financing higher security spending that strengthened the authoritarian regime.
Declining oil production and revenues now challenge this model by reducing the resources available to sustain security forces and patronage networks. In this situation, China has stepped in to meet the Obiang regime’s financial needs. In 2024, China and Equatorial Guinea announced that they would strengthen their bilateral relations and establish a comprehensive strategic partnership. President Xi Jinping said China is willing to support Equatorial Guinea’s economic and social development and is ready to help the country diversify its economy.
Chinese assistance shows that it is now interested in a broader range of strategic benefits these countries can offer, not just oil. This change is especially noticeable in security, where China is trying to turn its stronger economic ties into a more active military role in Africa. For instance, U.S. officials said Beijing is considering establishing a military installation in Equatorial Guinea.
A Chinese military base in Equatorial Guinea would be significant as it could give Beijing its first military presence on Africa’s Atlantic coast, expanding China’s ability to operate beyond its existing base in Djibouti. For Washington, this presents a risk as Beijing’s ability to project naval power could threaten U.S. maritime access and complicate American military operations in the Atlantic.
TO WIN THE NEXT WAR, AMERICA MUST GIVE UP ITS CONSUMER GOODS RACE AGAINST CHINA
Washington does not need to compete with Beijing dollar for dollar or overlook Malabo’s authoritarianism. Instead, it should recognize that Equatorial Guinea’s economic transition creates opportunities for a different kind of American engagement. Washington should utilize Equatorial Guinea’s clean-energy potential to encourage new American investment beyond oil while expanding targeted development assistance. With U.S. foreign assistance historically limited to roughly $2 million annually, modest, carefully targeted support for health, education, and economic diversification could strengthen engagement.
Equatorial Guinea’s declining oil production may make the country less attractive to Western energy companies, but it does not make it less strategically important to the United States. If Washington retreats as oil production declines, Beijing will have an opportunity to fill the economic vacuum and potentially turn it into a strategic foothold on the Atlantic.
Yagiz Sullu, Ph.D., is the Founder and Lead Analyst at Sullu Strategic Advisory LLC. He holds a Ph.D. in Planning, Governance, and Globalization from Virginia Tech’s School of Public and International Affairs, where his research focused on governance, political risk, energy policy, and authoritarian resilience in resource-dependent countries.
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