Morocco’s avocado sector banks on mild August after May heat losses

Morocco’s avocado sector is preparing for a season marked by early-summer heat stress, with growers now turning their attention to how August temperatures will determine final output, according to Abdellah Elyamlahi, president of the Moroccan Avocado Association (MAVA).

“The heatwave we experienced in late May had a real impact on production, with a significant drop in fruit in the orchards. These losses account for about 30% of the fruit that had passed the flowering stage,” Elyamlahi explains.

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Elyamlahi notes that the final volume will depend largely on weather conditions in the coming weeks: “Despite the losses, we expect a plentiful season. The volumes forecast before the heat wave hit were enormous, and we also expect huge volumes nationwide after the heat wave. That said, everything will depend on how August unfolds. If temperatures remain below the 38–40-degree threshold, we can reasonably estimate total production at around 130,000 tonnes. This figure provides us with a solid foundation for the upcoming season, provided there is no new spike in heat stress during this critical period.”

On sizing and quality, Elyamlahi strikes an optimistic tone: “We expect calibers to lean toward medium and large fruit for the most part. In terms of quality, we’re anticipating an excellent season overall, in line with the advancements the industry achieved over the last seasons.”

As for the season’s kick-off, Elyamlahi says he does not foresee any major shift compared to previous campaigns. “We’re not expecting any real change in that regard. The season should get underway in October, in line with what the market has come to expect from Moroccan origin.”

The losses to the heatwave are reminiscent of last season (2025–2026), when two hot spells in May and August caused the loss of half the season’s volume.

For more information:
Abdellah Elyamlahi
Moroccan Avocado Association (MAVA)
Tel: +212 678732391
Email: [email protected]