Is window closing for regime change in Cuba? South Florida congressmen urge patience

On Aug 17, 2026

MIAMI — As the economic vise grip of America’s “maximum pressure” campaign on Cuba aimed at toppling its communist leadership continues, two Cuban American congressmen representing South Florida are urging patience when it comes to when the world might witness political change on the communist island.

Local 10 News reporter Christina Vazquez asked U.S. Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, R-Florida, “Do you think that can happen with Raul Castro still in a position of power there on the island?”

“I don’t think he is going to change,” Diaz-Balart said. “What is important is that this administration is doing everything it can to pressure the regime.”

In the wake of the U.S. defense secretary’s remarks that all options are on the table, including military options, U.S. Rep. Carlos Gimenez, R-Florida, said, “I think you leave everything on the table. You keep your opponent guessing.”

“Does it require military force? No, not necessarily,” Diaz-Balart said. “But should the president have every option on the table? Absolutely.”

“We know we need political change before we have economic change,” Gimenez said.

Both share a view that Cuba’s proximity to the U.S. and decades-long alignment with some of America’s adversaries poses a national security threat.

“Just like the process in Venezuela needs to culminate in elections, the process in Cuba needs to culminate in regime change,” Diaz-Balart said.

“If we don’t get it done within the next year and a half, two years, then we will probably lose our window, but I think things are going to change,” Gimenez said.

Cuba analyst Andy Gomez said, “If nothing happens in Cuba in the next six months, the window is closed.”

“Why? They have dug in,” Gomez said. “The sanctions at this point are hurting the Cuban people. If the Cuban government was willing to negotiate, they would have done it by now. The only option on the table left for the United States is a military strike.”

Even then, Gomez explained why, in his view, dismantling Cuba’s communist system and moving the country toward freedom will be a heavy lift.

“Transitioning to democracy when you have a million people that have been indoctrinated or were born after 1959 and they don’t have the democratic attitudes and values to sustain — what are we talking about, a democracy?” Gomez said. “So transitioning to a democracy will take time and could be a generation.”

“I do now believe that there is a possibility after Raul Castro dies that some of the lower-ranking generals that did not participate in the Cuban revolution could say, ‘Enough is enough. We’re taking over,’” Gomez said.

“But what is the United States’ ultimate plan with Cuba? I can’t figure it out,” Gomez said. “I mean, with Venezuela, Marco (Rubio)’s plan was very clear. Not that I agree with it, but it was very clear. Stabilization, recovery and transition without a timetable. Can the same thing be applied to Cuba? What does Cuba have to offer? They don’t have oil. There are many differences between Venezuela and Cuba. They are very different, including that the people in power in Venezuela gave up the guy on top ― Nicolas Maduro ― buying time until Trump leaves office.”

Gomez said the White House has failed to clearly articulate what its phased transition plan for Cuba would look like.

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