In-Depth: US Beef Market Opens Wider Just as Brazil Needs It
The doors to two of the world’s major markets were slamming shut to Brazilian beef exporters when, suddenly, the door to another market opened even wider.
Protectionist actions in China and the European Union have largely or entirely closed those markets to Brazil as of this month. But an unexpected action by U.S. President Donald Trump was perfectly timed for the Brazilian industry. It’s the latest chapter in the saga of trade flows being drastically redrawn by the politics of beef.
China this year implemented safeguard levels — comparable to the tariff-rate quotas on imports that the United States maintains — with the expressed purpose of protecting its domestic beef producers, who had alleged they were damaged by rising imports from 2019-24. Brazil, which had grown its share of the Chinese import market from about 35% to 45% from 2021-24, saw its allocation limited under the safeguard to 41% of the total quota.
As a result, Brazilian exporters and their Chinese buyers rushed during the first half of 2026 to capture the limited allocation. By July, Chinese government data showed the quota of 1.1 million metric tons (mt) was 92% filled. “This remaining volume has certainly been filled in China,” Wagner Yanaguizawa, a Brazil-based Rabobank animal protein analyst, told Meatingplace.
Without the safeguard quota, Brazilian exports to China were about 1.65 million mt last year.
Photo by Tingshu Wang – Pool/Getty Images
Slow boats to China
Any further imports during 2026 into China will face a punitive 55% levy, which is expected to halt all but some sales of high-end cuts. Given the 40 to 50 days required for sea freight to China, Yanaguizawa said that shipments from Brazil should resume by November, as exporters again race to get their products to Chinese ports.
He noted that China’s demand for cuts such as chuck roll, brisket and short ribs makes it a good complement to the domestic market for Brazilian processors.
Meanwhile, trouble was brewing for Brazil’s meat industry in the European Union, too. In May, authorities in Brussels followed through on the bloc’s gathering concerns about antibiotic use in Brazilian beef and poultry. A ban was issued, taking effect Sept. 3 with no clear timeline for when and how the impasse could be resolved.
The European Commission alleges that Brazilian authorities have been unable to provide satisfactory assurances that use of antimicrobials in livestock production meets EU standards. The issue flared up just as a free trade deal between the EU and Mercosur — Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay — took effect in May over the objections of many European farm interests. Irish farmers, for example, this month have even asked their national regulator to purge any Brazilian beef that might still be lingering in cold storage.
Brazilian authorities have said they are contemplating retaliatory actions against the EU. Beef exports from Brazil to the 27 EU countries last year exceeded 100,000 mt and were on a similar pace before the ban.
Major processors including JBS, Minerva and Marfrig already maintained separate lines for exporting valuable beef cuts to the lucrative EU market, including European cattle breeds that are raised in the somewhat cooler climate of southern Brazil. Yanaguizawa said that the Brazilian meat industry hopes to restore poultry exports to the EU within months, possibly before the end of 2026. But satisfying Brussels’ demands for transparency in beef production could take significantly longer.
“Other countries”
On Aug. 26, Trump ordered a 90-day tariff holiday for up to 300,000 mt of imported lean beef trimmings, which he had announced days earlier on social media. Only 1,400 words into his proclamation did it become clear that the overwhelming part of that amount would have to come from Brazil.
The text specified that three monthly, 100,000 mt tranches of lean trimmings would be available starting Sept. 1, “allocated in its entirety to ‘other countries or areas.’” Under the U.S. tariff-rate quotas, Brazil — which produces 15% of the world’s beef and 22% of beef exports — is by far the largest exporter without its own allocation.
As a result, the “other countries” allocation of 52,000 mt has for years been filled every January.
Brazil’s shipments have tracked the contraction of the U.S. herd, growing from 104,000 mt in 2021 to 295,000 mt last year worth $1.75 billion, even though most of that amount faced a 26.4% out-of-quota tariff. Through the first seven months of the year, U.S. imports were nearly 260,000 mt, shipped predominantly from the Port of Santos in São Paulo state to Atlantic container ports from Florida to New York.
Total U.S. beef imports from all sources have jumped from 1.2 million mt in 2021 (valued at $8.65 billion) to 1.8 million mt (worth $14.31 billion) last year. 2026 imports are ahead of that pace at 1.35 million mt, worth $11 billion, through July.
Significant sources
Brazil, Nicaragua and Paraguay are the only significant exporters in the “other countries” quota under the Trump import proposal.
Through July of this year, the top exporters of beef to the U.S. were:
- Australia 298,000 mt. TRQ: 449,909 mt, combined WTO and AUSFTA entitlements.
- Brazil 259,000 mt. TRQ: 52,005 mt, shared with “all other countries or areas.”
- Canada 203,000 mt. TRQ: None, unlimited under USMCA.
- Mexico 184,000 mt. TRQ: None, unlimited under USMCA.
- New Zealand 147,000 mt. TRQ: 213,402 mt.
- Uruguay 80,000 mt. TRQ: 20,000 mt.
- Argentina 62,000 mt. TRQ: 100,000 mt; 20,000 mt annual quota plus 20,000 mt extra quota per quarter during 2026.
- Nicaragua 53,000 mt. TRQ: 52,005 mt, shared with “all other countries or areas.”
- Paraguay 47,000 mt. TRQ: 52,005 mt, shared with “all other countries or areas.”
Trump’s announcement came ahead of the November midterm elections with the White House focused on the politics of consumer prices, which have been elevated this year in large part due to the energy supply impacts of the war with Iran. He has insisted that beef imported under the tariff holiday will be sold 25% below the prevailing market price. It remains unclear if any retailers have agreed to that arrangement, though Trump’s proclamation contained a threat to halt the tariff holiday as an enforcement mechanism.
Brazilian billionaire Joesley Batista, who shares control of JBS with his brother Wesley Batista, had a private meeting with Trump on Aug. 20. The Wall Street Journal, which revealed the Oval Office encounter two weeks later, reported they discussed how supplies could help lower U.S. beef prices. Trump made his social media announcement the next day.
JBS has previous ties to the Trump administration. Pilgrim’s Pride, which is majority-owned by JBS, contributed $5 million to Trump’s inauguration, making it the largest single donor to the 2025 event.
Very good timing
With a lull in demand from China until late this year, “the timing of this new 300,000 tons to the U.S. was very, very good” for the Brazilian beef industry, Yanaguizawa said.
Brazil’s capacity to even deliver an extra 100,000 mt a month through November is unclear. Because of the annual rush by “other country” exporters, January is typically by far the largest month for Brazilian shipments, and the largest was 64,884 mt in January 2025.
Paraguay and Nicaragua, which has become Central America’s largest beef exporter, are the only other significant sources using the “other country” quota. Nicaragua’s entire 2025 production was 214,000 mt of beef, while Paraguay produced 630,000 mt of beef last year, according to USDA data. Nicaragua has not exceeded 9,000 mt tons in any month this year.
“I would say that Brazil and Paraguay will be the most benefitted players,” Yanaguizawa said.
The Brazilian industry is confident of delivering at least 50% to 60% of the 100,000 mt monthly through November, which Yanaguizawa called “completely possible.” Not only does the sector in Brazil have the production capacity to deliver volumes in that magnitude, but the price premium for selling into the U.S. market is a close second only to the EU.
“They will not think twice to redirect part of this volume … to the U.S. because of the pricing, because of the revenue,” Yanaguizawa said.
An additional factor in quickly shifting export flows from distant China to the United States is shorter, faster and ultimately cheaper shipping. “I would say that it’ll be easier to redirect with lower cost,” Yanaguizawa said.
He added it is “hard to say” if Paraguay can achieve volumes to take a significant fraction of the 100,000 mt monthly quota. The country only achieved U.S. market access in 2024 and has only exceeded 10,000 mt in monthly volume once: January 2026, in the rush to fill a portion of the “other country” quota, when it hit 23,497.4 mt.
Paraguay’s industry is partly integrated with Brazil’s beef sector, and Yanaguizawa said it was possible that imports from Paraguay could backfill Brazil’s domestic demand to free up more volume for U.S. buyers.
Trump’s tariff holiday drew immediate opposition from U.S. cattle producers and Republican lawmakers from cattle-producing states, who argued that plans to increase imports were already weighing on cattle prices and could discourage producers from rebuilding the U.S. beef herd, which has shrunken to historic lows.
“In my judgment, the action in this proclamation is appropriate, necessary to ensure that imports of agricultural products do not disrupt the orderly marketing of commodities in the United States, and necessary to ensure that the supply of ground beef will be adequate to meet domestic demand at reasonable prices,” the presidential order stated.
The tariff waiver is limited to specific beef import classifications used as lean trim for ground beef products: HTSUS reporting categories 0201.30.5091, 0201.30.5097, 0202.30.5091, and 0202.30.5097.
The 300,000 mt amounts to less than 2 pounds per capita, or about one month of annual consumption of ground beef. Brazilian lean trim, blended with domestic fat trim, largely goes into fast-food burgers. Economist Derrell Peel of the Oklahoma State University Extension Service wrote this week that the imports, given the quantity and predominantly food service consumption, are “unlikely to have any measurable impact on ground beef prices at retail grocery.”