‘Clock is moving’: US sanctions pose a threat to Iran’s economy, analyst says

On Aug 18, 2026

WASHINGTON (TNND) — With a 60-day deadline expiring on a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, President Donald Trump on Monday used sharp language about Iran’s economy and military posture while insisting the country “will never have a nuclear weapon.”

Miad Maleki, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a former senior U.S. Treasury official involved in sanctions campaigns targeting Iran and its proxies, told The National News Desk the situation can be understood as two clocks running down for Iran: oil exports and gasoline supplies. (TNND)

Speaking in the Oval Office as the clock ran out on the interim deal signed in June, Trump said Iran is “in big trouble,” claiming the country has “300% inflation,” is “a mess,” and that its military is “totally defeated.” Trump also publicly urged Iran to “put up the white flag of surrender,” while saying he was under no time pressure. The U.S. has already resumed designations, and Trump is not seeking an extension of the MoU.

The interim agreement had been intended to lead to a final deal covering Iran’s nuclear program and sanctions relief. Instead, the two sides are now “further apart than when it began,” with global energy markets, regional security and the future of the maximum-pressure strategy all at stake.

Maleki said Iran’s oil exports fell dramatically during the first Trump administration, but it took time and sustained pressure.

“It took us about two years of extremely aggressive sanctions to bring Iran’s oil export down to below 200,000 barrels a day from two million barrels per day,” Maleki said, describing 2 million barrels per day as a typical level for Iran.

He said current efforts resemble “a maximum pressure campaign on steroids,” arguing that a “physical blockade” is disrupting oil flows that he said account for “somewhere between 40 to 60% of Iran’s GDP” and “about 40 to 50% of the government of Iran budget for paying salaries and running the government.”

Maleki also said the Treasury Department has been imposing sanctions aimed at making it difficult for Iran to repatriate revenue previously generated from oil sales in China, limiting the regime’s ability to pay for imports and conduct commerce.

While the impact of reduced oil revenue can take time to hit because of payment-cycle delays, Maleki said gasoline shortages could create faster-moving pressure. Maleki said Iran faces “about 20 menu letters, a day in deficits in gasoline,” and warned that if the country runs short, it could face a difficult domestic situation.

“The gasoline clock is something that is extremely, threatening to Iran’s economy,” Maleki said.

Maleki pointed to past unrest tied to fuel prices, saying, “Last time to increase the price of gasoline in Iran, they had one the largest round of protests in Iran.”

Asked what steps the administration should prioritize, Maleki argued the U.S. should avoid signaling any timetable for a blockade.

“Do not signal a timetable for the blockade,” he said, warning that doing so could allow Iran to wait out U.S. administrations or escalate to increase pressure.

He also said Iran is unusually isolated diplomatically and that jurisdictions he described as previously “friendly” to Iran’s sanctions evasion — including the UAE, China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia — are now facing disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz and regional attacks. Maleki said the U.S. has an opportunity to work with partners such as the UAE to tighten enforcement and prevent Iran from bypassing sanctions.

When asked about the possibility of the Strait of Hormuz or Kharg Island becoming U.S. territory, Maleki said he did not think it would make economic or military sense. He said countries in Asia and the Gulf are more dependent on the strait than the United States and should be more involved in securing its future.

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