Brazil election: Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro nearly tied in new poll
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva holds a narrow lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of October’s presidential election, but a new poll suggests the race could be too close to call in a potential runoff.
A Quaest poll commissioned by Brazilian media group Globo found Lula leading Flavio Bolsonaro 43% to 40% in a simulated second-round contest, Anadolu Agency reported.
The result falls within the poll’s two-percentage-point margin of error, making the matchup effectively a statistical tie.
Lula’s advantage has narrowed slightly since the previous Quaest survey, which showed him ahead of Bolsonaro 44% to 39% on August 5.
The latest poll was conducted between August 10 and 13 among 2,004 respondents.
In a simulated first-round vote, Lula received 38% support, compared with 31% for Bolsonaro. Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado each registered 4%, while Romeu Zema received 2%.
Brazilian electoral rules require a runoff between the two leading candidates if no contender secures more than half of the valid votes in the first round.
Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, has emerged as the leading candidate on Brazil’s political right after his father was barred from running.
Brazil’s top electoral court previously declared Jair Bolsonaro ineligible to contest elections over abuse of political power. He was later convicted over a plot to overturn his defeat to Lula in the 2022 presidential election.
Lula officially launched his reelection campaign on August 2 at a Workers’ Party convention in Sao Paulo, presenting the election as a contest over Brazil’s national sovereignty.
His campaign has increasingly focused on protecting Brazil’s strategic resources, including its rare earths and other critical minerals, from foreign influence.
“I want to be prepared, so that no one invades this country,” Lula said at the campaign launch.
He also warned that China, the United States and France would not gain access to Brazil’s mineral wealth without respecting the country’s sovereignty.
The Brazilian president has also criticized US President Donald Trump over his relationship with the Bolsonaro family and warned Washington against interfering in Brazil’s election.
“Don’t meddle in the Brazilian elections, because the Brazilian elections are a Brazilian problem,” Lula said in June.
With the election around two months away, the latest polling indicates that the contest between Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro is tightening, with the president maintaining only a slim advantage in a potential runoff.