Brazil and U.S. May Defer Trade Deal Until 2027, Experts Say
Major takeway of the event organized by ABPL and Ouribank was that election uncertainty and a bilateral agenda that goes far beyond tariffs could delay a definitive agreement.
By Carlos Wesley
Boca Raton, FL — September 13, 2026 — The 2026 electoral calendar may become one of the main obstacles to a definitive trade agreement between Brazil and the United States in the coming months. That was one of the key takeaways from “Tariffs and Foreign Trade: Impacts, Challenges and Opportunities,” an event hosted by the Association of Brazilian Professionals in Logistics (ABPL) and Ouribank, with institutional support from the Consulate General of Brazil in Miami.
Although negotiations have resumed and a recent phone call between Presidents Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Donald Trump helped ease tensions, experts at the event said broader decisions could be postponed until 2027, after Brazil’s October elections and the November U.S. midterm elections.
Welber Barral, Brazil’s former Secretary of Foreign Trade and a member of the Brazilian delegation’s ongoing dialogue with U.S. officials, said the agenda extends well beyond tariffs. According to Barral, Washington is also interested in critical minerals, digital markets, and the energy transition — issues that could require regulatory changes and, in some cases, congressional approval in Brazil.
Barral also said Lula and Trump may meet again during the United Nations General Assembly in New York. “There is a lot at stake, so I really believe the two sides will reach an agreement starting in 2027,” he said.
Leonardo Capra, president of DRACO Freight Logistics, offered a more cautious assessment. In his view, there is no guarantee that tariffs will be significantly reduced after the elections. Governments, he argued, tend to value the revenue generated by tariffs and their role as instruments of trade and industrial policy.
For companies involved in international trade, the current environment is forcing them to adapt. Thiago Covre, Maersk’s director for Latin America, described the current period as “the era of unpredictability.” Companies, he said, must be prepared to reassess suppliers, markets, shipping routes, costs, and financing strategies rather than wait for governments to define the next steps.
João Granato, a member of the ABPL Board, used a soccer analogy to describe the new international environment. “Teams need to get used to the new field, because there is no prospect of change over the next seven years,” he said.
While negotiations continue, the private sector is already looking for practical solutions. During the event, Ouribank announced that it will extend maritime and air freight financing terms by up to 50%. The initiative is expected to benefit importers and exporters from approximately 120 companies affiliated with ABPL.
The event also marked ABPL’s 10th anniversary and brought together representatives of government, business, and the Brazilian community in South Florida. Ambassador Marco Farani, of the Consulate General of Brazil in Miami, and Doral Mayor Christi Fraga highlighted the importance of strengthening connections between Brazil and the United States, especially Florida. The diplomat highlighted that the trade volume between the two countries reached a historic milestone of approximately $80.9 billion, driven by record-breaking economic integration. Out of this total, the Sunshine State established itself as Brazil’s largest state-level partner, single-handedly accounting for $27.5 billion in merchandise trade.
For Erika Bachiega, representant of Ouribank and who organized the event, the goal is to turn the discussion into an ongoing initiative. “Bringing experts, business leaders and professionals together to discuss opportunities is essential to understanding these changes and finding concrete ways to address the challenges,” she said.