World’s Oceans Hit Record Heat as El Niño Intensifies, Putting Colombia at Risk

Global ocean temperatures have reached their highest level on record, with the average surface temperature rising to 21.1°C (70°F) on Aug. 22, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service. The reading surpassed the previous record of 21.09°C set in March 2024. The unusual August peak comes as a strong El Niño develops in the tropical Pacific, adding to the long-term warming caused by human-driven climate change.

For Colombia, the warming ocean is not a distant climate signal. El Niño is already affecting rainfall, water availability and wildfire risk across the country. The Colombian government declared a national disaster situation in July to prepare for the expected effects of the 2026-27 event.

Record ocean heat combines with climate change and El Niño

The record does not mean that El Niño alone has heated the world’s oceans to unprecedented levels. Scientists link the current conditions to two processes operating at the same time.

Human-caused climate change has steadily increased ocean temperatures over decades. The oceans absorb more than 90% of the excess heat generated by global warming. El Niño then redistributes additional heat through the tropical Pacific and alters atmospheric circulation, rainfall and temperatures around the world.

The timing of the new record is also unusual. Global ocean temperatures normally reach their annual maximum around March or April. This year, the highest reading arrived in August as El Niño continues to strengthen.

The warming has consequences beyond the temperature itself. Hotter oceans can increase evaporation and add heat and moisture to the atmosphere. They can also stress marine ecosystems, reduce oxygen levels, and contribute to coral bleaching and changes in fish populations.

El Niño is already affecting Colombia

Colombia entered the current El Niño event with conditions that authorities were already monitoring closely. The country’s meteorological agency, IDEAM, reported in August that El Niño conditions were present in both the atmosphere and the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

IDEAM estimates a greater than 90% chance that the phenomenon will stretch straight through the first quarter of 2027. It also estimated a 69% probability of a “very strong” event during October, November and December 2026.

The Colombian government has taken the risk seriously. A July decree declared a national disaster situation for an initial period of 12 months, citing the potential effects of El Niño on water supplies, agriculture, energy generation, public health and ecosystems. Authorities identified 558 municipalities at high or very high risk of drinking-water shortages, including 111 facing the highest level of concern.

The country’s Pacific coast is also experiencing unusually warm waters. In an August monitoring bulletin, the Colombian Ocean Commission reported sea-surface temperatures 1.3°C to 2°C above normal in the Colombian Pacific, with anomalies approaching 5°C near northern Peru and southern Ecuador.

Water and wildfire risks are rising

For Colombia, one of the most immediate concerns is rainfall. El Niño typically reduces precipitation in parts of the country, particularly in the Pacific, Andean and Caribbean regions. Lower rainfall can reduce river flows and reservoir levels, affecting drinking-water supplies, agriculture and hydroelectric generation.

The consequences are already visible in the wildfire season. Colombia’s disaster-management authorities have reported active forest fires while warning that dry conditions linked to El Niño are increasing the risk.

Tolima has become one of the most affected areas. Recent reporting described dozens of active fires and extensive burned areas, with high temperatures and below-average rainfall making suppression more difficult. Some fires are also under investigation for possible deliberate ignition, meaning not every fire can be attributed to climate or El Niño alone.

That distinction matters. El Niño creates hotter and drier conditions that can increase fire risk, but human activity can determine whether a fire starts and how far it spreads.

Climate change makes the El Niño threat harder to separate

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon, but it now operates on a warmer planet. That distinction is important for understanding the current ocean record. Even as El Niño fades, the relentless warming driven by greenhouse gas emissions will persist. The result is a climate system in which natural variability can push already elevated temperatures even higher.

The current event could become one of the strongest El Niño episodes recorded since 1950. Colombia’s authorities expect its effects to continue into early 2027, with potential pressure on water resources, agriculture, energy systems and ecosystems.

For Colombia, the record ocean temperature therefore matters less as an isolated global statistic than as part of a larger chain: a warmer climate is colliding with a strengthening El Niño, while the country is already experiencing the consequences through heat, reduced water availability and wildfires.