World Cup odds, best bets for Thursday’s matches including USA-Turkey

Thursday brings the conclusion of three more groups at the World Cup. The United States is in action, although there is no drama there. Neither the Americans nor Turkey can change their standing in the group based on this match.

Here’s a look at what is at stake for each of the 12 teams in action on Thursday. If you’re placing bets or in a pick ’em pool, this is your guide on how the teams are likely to play given the scenarios they face. Advancement percentages are from The Athletic’s World Cup predictor.

Group E

Ecuador vs. Germany

Standings: Germany (6 points, 1st), Ecuador (1 point, 3rd)

Time: 4 p.m. ET

TV: Fox (English), Telemundo (Spanish)

Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J.

Germany scenarios: Has already clinched the group

Ecuador scenarios: Advances with a win, extremely unlikely to advance with a draw (

Germany doesn’t have anything to play for, which makes evaluating this match tricky. The Germans would be strong favorites against an Ecuador team that hasn’t scored a goal yet. They’re still favored, but at barely less than even money.

Meanwhile, Ecuador needs a win. A 1-0 loss to Ivory Coast, featuring a 90th-minute goal, and a 0-0 draw with Curaçao, where goalkeeper Eloy Room recorded a whopping 15 saves against Ecuador, has put the South Americans in a difficult position.

Curaçao vs. Ivory Coast

Standings: Ivory Coast (3 points, 2nd), Curaçao (1 point, 4th)

Time: 4 p.m. ET

TV: FS1 (English), Universo (Spanish)

Venue: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia

Ivory Coast scenarios: Advances with a win or draw, could still advance with a loss (66%)

Curaçao scenarios: Almost certainly advances with a win (>99%), almost certainly eliminated with a draw (

Not many people would’ve expected Curaçao to still be alive at this point. The island nation held Ecuador to a surprising draw to at least enter this match with a chance.

That chance is a long shot with Ivory Coast as an overwhelming favorite. The Elephants only need a draw to secure second place in the group, which is the best group finish they can achieve, but are still expected to control play.

Group F

Japan vs. Sweden

Standings: Japan (4 points, 2nd), Sweden (3 points, 3rd)

Time: 7 p.m. ET

TV: Fox (English), Universo (Spanish)

Venue: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas

Japan scenarios: Advances with a win or draw, almost certainly advances with a loss (>99%)

Sweden scenarios: Advances with a win or draw, probably advances with a loss (88%)

Japan won a group with Spain and Germany four years ago and has a chance to win a group with the Netherlands this summer. It won’t be easy against a Swedish team that needs at least a point to guarantee a spot in the next round.

The Samurai Blue are favored in this match, but are nearly 3-to-1 to win the group. Keeping up with the Netherlands, who are playing a struggling Tunisia team, will be tough.

Tunisia vs. Netherlands

Standings: Netherlands (4 points, 1st), Tunisia (0 points, 4th)

Time: 7 p.m. ET

TV: FS1 (English), Telemundo (Spanish)

Venue: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Mo.

Netherlands scenarios: Advances with a win or draw, almost certainly advances with a loss (>99%)

Tunisia scenarios: Has already been eliminated

Tunisia has arguably looked the worst of any team in the field. A 5-1 loss to Sweden looked even worse when the Swedes then lost to the Netherlands 5-1. It’s hard to apply the transitive property, but it does paint an ugly picture for this match. Tunisia has the worst goal differential (minus-8) in the tournament.

The Dutch could be motivated to run up the score, considering the group winner could come down to goal differential. The Netherlands and Japan are both plus-4, and the Dutch start the day with a slight edge in goals scored (7-6).

Group D

United States vs. Turkey

Standings: United States (6 points, 1st), Turkey (0 points, 4th)

Time: 10 p.m. ET

TV: Fox (English), Telemundo (Spanish)

Venue: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, Calif.

United States scenarios: Has already clinched the group

Turkey scenarios: Has already been eliminated

It’s not often in a World Cup that neither team has had anything tangible to play for. It last happened in 2018 (twice, when both teams were eliminated before they faced one another in their last group matches). With head-to-head coming in as the first tiebreaker this year, it becomes more likely.

The United States has already won the group and can rest players who have yellow cards (thus avoiding possible suspensions for the next round) and injuries. How much will manager Mauricio Pochettino change things? It’s a question of rest vs. rhythm. After two wins, the temptation is there to keep things rolling. However, Pochettino would have tough questions to answer if a key player gets injured.

The dilemma is extra tricky with Christian Pulisic, who may want to get back on the field after only playing a half so far at this tournament due to a calf injury. If he rests again, he would enter the Round of 32 match having not played for 19 days.

The U.S. has lost its last nine matches against European competition, including a 2-1 loss to Turkey last June in Connecticut. The Americans have won groups two other times in World Cups (1930, 2010), but have never won all three matches in a group nor won three matches in a row.

Paraguay vs. Australia

Standings: Australia (3 points, 2nd), Paraguay (3 points, 3rd)

Time: 10 p.m. ET

TV: FS1 (English), Universo (Spanish)

Venue: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, Calif.

Australia scenarios: Advances with a win or draw, probably advance with a loss (80%)

Paraguay scenarios: Advances with a win, almost certainly advances with a draw (>99%), could advance with a loss (49%)

Both of these teams beat Turkey and lost to the United States. They now play for a place in the knockout round.

Australia advances in second place with a draw, so Paraguay will be the team pushing for a win, but it’s also very likely that a draw is enough for Paraguay. If either team loses, that’s when it gets dicey, especially for Paraguay, which enters with a minus-2 goal differential (Australia’s is even).

This could be a match where Paraguay pushes for a while, but the longer this match stays tied, the longer both teams may be satisfied and let the clock run out. The real disaster scenario is if either team falls behind by a couple of goals.

Australia likes to play on the counter and can set up that way from the start, knowing a draw will be enough. The real question is how motivated Paraguay will be to send numbers forward.

A draw is nearly even money, and under 1.5 goals is +125, which means the sportsbooks are well aware of the scenarios.

Best bets

Mike Hume: Netherlands to win by exactly two goals, +290 (FanDuel)

The Dutch need this win — and possibly goal differential help — to finish atop the group. But … do they care? Netherlands is tied with Japan in both points and goal differential, but the rewards for winning the group are marginal. The top two teams from this group face either Brazil or Morocco, and if there’s no preference, then I can see the Dutch simply using their considerable talent advantage to score (in this case twice) and then parking the bus for the better part of the match.

I could also see the merit in taking the slightly worse odds of +200 for a Dutch win by 4+ goals, given Tunisia’s minus-8 goal differential. By applying Murphy’s Law to my recent track record, this almost certainly means the correct answer is Netherlands by exactly three goals.

Dan Santaromita: Paraguay-Australia draw, +125 (DraftKings)

This match is the Prisoner’s Dilemma, World Cup style. This is a horrible price for a normal draw, but I can’t resist picking a game that could have some minor collusion. A draw ensures Australia advances in second and almost certainly gets Paraguay through in third place with four points. If either loses, that team would be squarely on the bubble of third-place teams. Both are motivated to play nice for 90 minutes and shake hands. The odds reflect that, but I’m still picking it.

Vik Chokshi: Ecuador-Germany both teams to score, -122, Enner Valencia to score, +290 (FanDuel)

It’s now or never for Ecuador, so look for them to go full throttle from the jump. And if they score, I like Valencia to be the one to get it done. On the flip side, Germany is just too talented not to get a goal in this game, even if they have nothing to play for. Case in point, Mexico against the Czech Republic on Wednesday night.

Dean Jones: Ecuador-Germany Draw/Germany, +425 (DraftKings)

This is a bet that predicts the game will be tied at the halfway stage but won by Germany at full-time.

Germany has scored six of their nine goals at this tournament in the second half, and with a tactical battle likely to be played out in the first half of this one, it could be that the back door opens as Ecuador push on for a result they need in the second period.

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