World Cup gameday discussion: Why China and Australia should cruise into the quarter-finals

Two more spots remain in the 2026 FIBA World Cup quarter-finals.

Hungary and Germany punched their tickets yesterday. Will Puerto Rico or China and Italy or Australia join them?

The Puerto Ricans, after finishing in third place in Group C, take on China, the second-place team from Group D (11:45 a.m. ET, HBO Max). Then, Australia, second-place finishers in Group C, will meet Italy, the third-place team from Group D (2:45 p.m. ET, HBO Max).

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Both matchups have a clear favorite, but jump in the comments and let us know your predictions.

Can Imani McGee-Stafford and Puerto Rico achieve an improbable win over China?

It’s been a great World Cup for Imani McGee-Stafford. The former WNBA first-round pick hasn’t played in the league since 2019, when she averaged about 12 minutes per game for the Dallas Wings. Since then, she’s played in Australia, China and beyond.

A recent addition to the Puerto Rican national team, McGee-Stafford is enjoying an renaissance. With a double-double average of 17.3 points and 13 rebounds in group play, she’s the leading scorer and rebounder for Puerto Rico, while also averaging over a steal and almost two blocks per game.

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The 6-foot-6 and 31-year-old center, however, will have to deliver an absolute masterclass for Puerto Rico to advance to the quarter-finals.

China has several players who will make McGee-Stafford, by far Puerto Rico’s tallest player, look small.

And while Zhang Ziyu, at 7-foot-3 and just 19 years old, may initially attract more eyes, it’s Han Xu that Puerto Rico and McGee-Stafford has to worry about. Han is averaging an efficient double-double, scoring 17.3 points per game in group play, while shooting almost 55 percent from 3, and grabbing 11.3 rebounds per game.

Han’s fluidity at her size can be mesmerizing—and unstoppable. For undersized Puerto Rico, the best bet might be crowding her with multiple, smaller defenders.

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However, China has enough other scorers with size who can also punish Puerto Rico. A 6-foot-0 guard, Yang Shuyu twice scored at least 15 points in group play, while Luo Xinyu is a forward who is comfortable from behind the arc, making over two 3-pointers per game.

Puerto Rico has tons of spunk, with both Arella Guirantes and Trinity San Antonio bringing scoring pop from the backcourt, but China just has too much size.

Can Italy find the fire required to overcome Australia?

It think it’s fair to say that the game against Team USA might have been Italy’s Super Bowl.

The Italians took the Americans to the brink. Yet, they had some trouble with Czechia and were blown out by China. Maybe, Italy can again conjure that extra motivation that was evident against Team USA. If not, Australia should cruise into the quarters.

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In group play, Australia outpaced Italy in almost every major statistical category, a development that’s not unexpected considering the Aussies’ overall talent advantage.

Ezi Magbegor has more than lived up to her captaincy, scoring almost 16 points per game on nearly 60 percent shooting, including almost 43 percent from 3 on more than two attempts per game. Steph Talbot also has been hyper-efficient, with her 14.7 points per game coming on an insane 66.7 percent shooting from the field.

That pairing has not only compensated for some less efficient offensive production from Australia’s younger players, as Jade Melbourne and Isobel Borlase have been inconsistent, but also the absence of Alanna Smith, who exited the Opals’ opening win early and has not played since due to a lower leg injury.

While a healthy Smith would add to Australia’s advantage, the Opals should find their way to quarter-finals even if she is again out of action.