Western Intelligence Says Russia Rehearsed Mobilization in Kaliningrad as Troop Shortages Deepen | Ukraine news
A tightly managed exercise in Russia’s Baltic exclave reveals the options Moscow is preparing as battlefield pressure tests the Kremlin’s political calculations.
In July, the Russian military held exercises in the Kaliningrad region to prepare for the possible mobilization of the population. According to Western intelligence officials, officers from St. Petersburg arrived in the region to oversee the mobilization drills.
During the exercises, the military planned how to arrange accommodation, meals, and weapons for residents called up in the event of mobilization. Western intelligence agencies say similar activities are taking place not only in the Kaliningrad region but also in other parts of Russia.
The Kremlin Has Yet to Decide on Mobilization
According to Western intelligence sources, the Kremlin has not yet decided whether to activate the mechanisms it has prepared. They believe a new wave of mobilization is unlikely to be announced before the parliamentary elections conclude in late September.
At the same time, Vladimir Putin’s ambition to seize the entire Donbas could influence the decision. In recent months, Russia has failed to recruit enough new troops to replace those killed and wounded on the front.
The extensive use of Ukrainian drones is placing further strain on Russian units. Due to heavy losses, frontline personnel may in some cases remain combat-effective for only minutes, days, or weeks.
U.S. and European officials believe that troop shortages could force Putin to announce another mobilization campaign.
Western Intelligence Assesses Risks to the Suwałki Corridor
Western intelligence agencies are also analyzing a scenario involving a possible escalation between Russia and the West. In such a situation, Russian forces could attempt to seize part of the Suwałki Corridor.
This is a strip of territory between Kaliningrad and Belarus that runs along the Polish-Lithuanian border. The area is strategically important because it provides the only land link between the Baltic states and the rest of NATO.
Mobilization Rumors Fuel Concern in Russia
Talk of a possible new wave of mobilization has been circulating in Russia in recent weeks and months. Amid these concerns, men are searching online for ways to leave the country at short notice. Some Russians have also identified places in advance where they could spend several months after mobilization begins.
Additional personnel could strengthen Russian forces and accelerate Russia’s advance toward Kramatorsk and Sloviansk in the Donetsk region. However, the effectiveness of such a decision remains uncertain if mobilization takes place late in the year – immediately before winter slows the fighting.