The Cuban Regime Prepares for the Next Big Protests
Five Years after July 11, 2021
HAVANA TIMES – Five Years After the July 11, 2021, demonstrations that rocked the country, the Cuban regime has not softened their repression but instead perfected it.
That’s the well-supported conclusion of a recent report: “5 Years After July 11: The Cuban Regime Prepares for the Next Protest,” prepared by Prisoners Defenders and Consorcio Justicia. The document brings together existing data to show that the Cuban regime has not reduced their repression since the historic protests of July 11, 2021 – rather, they have refined it. Political imprisonment, digital surveillance, the persecution of independent organizations, and the use of ambiguous or extremely serious criminal charges are the current strategies aimed at preventing, dismantling, or punishing any new citizen mobilization.
Further, the regime has shifted part of its repressive forces away from reacting to protests in order to engage in preventive identification and control of critics through digital surveillance, territorial monitoring, and preemptive criminalization.
During the first half of 2026, according to the report, more than 175 new political prisoners were added to the Prisoners Defenders registry. Of these, at least 114 cases are directly linked to the exercise of fundamental rights such as the right to assemble, the right of association, and freedom of expression.
The document then notes that within this subset of 114 cases, 79 involve individuals imprisoned for their involvement in peaceful protests or demonstrations; 22 are related to digital surveillance and the persecution of expression on social media; and 13 are associated with other forms of political repression. The report also covers the arrest or imprisonment of nine minors during the six-month period, some as young as 15.
From July 11 to 2026: A Sustained Policy, not an emergency response
The report traces the policies that have led to the incarceration of over 2,100 political prisoners in Cuba’s jails from July 1, 2021, through the end of June 2026. In the last six months alone, more than 175 new political prisoners have been added to Prisoners Defenders’ list.
In other words, the repression following July 11 has not been an exceptional response to a specific crisis, but rather the consolidation of a sustained policy aimed at preventing future citizen mobilizations. The first half of 2026 offers a particularly relevant snapshot, because it allows for an assessment of the current state of repressive mechanisms as the country approaches the fifth anniversary of July 11.
Protest, digital surveillance, and guilt by association: three pillars of repression
As detailed in the full report, the primary tool of repression remains the criminalization of the exercise of fundamental rights. Nearly 70% of the 114 cases analyzed involve individuals imprisoned because authorities linked them to peaceful demonstrations or protests.
The report also highlights digital surveillance as the second most common form of repression: at least 22 people were detained, imprisoned, or criminally prosecuted for recording videos, taking photographs, posting content on social media, or publicizing complaints about the country’s economic, social, and political situation. The remaining cases reflect the persecution of activists, opposition figures, independent journalists, and citizens associated with civic organizations.
March and June: two critical moments of repression
The most current wave of repression reached its peak in March 2026, with 41 political imprisonments, accounting for nearly 36% of the total documented during the six-month period. This increase was directly linked to the March 23 protests in Guanabacoa, Havana, which were followed by arbitrary detentions, temporary enforced disappearances, home raids, coercive interrogations, and threats.
The report also details the intensification of repression in June, particularly the June 22nd operation in the town of Contramaestre, near Cuba’s eastern tip. At least 8 people, including 4 minors, were detained there, following a massive raid in the La Cuba and Maffo neighborhoods. The detainees were all accused of alleged “sabotage”—though to date, no evidence has been made public to support these accusations.
Nationwide Repression
The repression of the right to protest was nationwide in scope, although it was concentrated in certain provinces. Of the 79 documented protesters imprisoned, Havana accounted for 35 cases, followed by Ciego de Ávila with 16, Holguín with 15, and Santiago de Cuba with 10. The report further identifies the specific sites that were the main centers of mobilization and repression: Arroyo Naranjo, Jaimanitas, Lawton, Cerro, Regla, Marianao, and Minas in Havana; Morón and Miraflores in Ciego de Ávila; Antilla in Holguín; and Altamira and Contramaestre in Santiago de Cuba.
Victims of repression
The document mentions some of the victims. One is Yunaiky de la Caridad Linares Rodriguez, a former political prisoner from the July 11, 2021, protests. Yunaiky was arrested again on June 2, 2026, during a peaceful protest against water shortages and power outages in Santa Amalia, Havana. Her father, Luis Alberto Reyes Lopez, was also arrested. According to the documented complaint, both were beaten during the arrest. Yunaiky was held at the Occidente Women’s Prison, where she was kept in solitary confinement and began a hunger strike.
The report also covers the case of Antonio Lazaro Fernandez Borges, who was arrested following the protests in Minas. His mother was also assaulted during the operation. Another case involves Javier Ernesto Martín Gutierrez, known as “Spiderman,” a Cuban mixed martial arts champion, who was arrested after staging a nine-day peaceful protest from the balcony of his home.
Imprisoned minors: another alarming development
The report highlights the especially worrisome situation of 9 of the 114 documented political prisoners, who are adolescents: Four of these prisoners are 15 years old; 2 are 16 years old; and 3 are 17 years old. All were arrested in the context of citizen protests or rounded up in the massive repressive operations.
The repression against minors was concentrated primarily in two incidents: the protests in Moron, Ciego de Ávila, in March 2026, and the mass raid in Contramaestre, Santiago de Cuba, in June. In the latter case, four minors were accused of alleged “sabotage,” an extremely serious charge that could drastically complicate their legal situation.
The New Frontier of Repression: Digital Surveillance and Preventive Punishment
The report demonstrates that digital surveillance has become an essential tool for detecting, neutralizing, and punishing expressions of criticism before they can lead to social mobilization. In Cuba, posting an opinion on social media, recording a police action, photographing critical graffiti, or disseminating independent information can lead to arrests, criminal proceedings, pretrial detention, and subsequent convictions.
This assertion is illustrated by cases such as those of Eduardo Ceballos Perez, known as Eddy Jones; Alexeis Serrano Aguila; Delis Frometa Suarez; and Erich Alain Chang Padron, who were persecuted for recording, posting, or sharing critical content on social media or the internet.
Criminal Charges, guilt by association, and the shuttering of civic space
The most commonly used charges against the 114 cases of detention analyzed in the report were “Public Disturbances” and “Propaganda against the constitutional order,” along with charges such as “Attempted Attack,” “Resistance,” “Contempt,” and “Defamation.” Of particular concern is the use of extremely serious criminal charges, such as “terrorism” and “sabotage,” which allow for the imposition of harsher pretrial measures and significantly longer sentences.
The report also addresses the persecution of freedom of association: at least 25 of the documented political prisoners had ties to civil society organizations, pro-democracy movements, opposition groups, journalistic projects, or independent citizen initiatives. The study demonstrates that civic space continues to shrink rapidly in Cuba.
An invitation to examine July 11 from the present perspective
The report amply illustrates the situation in Cuba five years after July 11, 2021,: political repression not only persists but has evolved into broader, more systematic, and more sophisticated mechanisms. The experience accumulated since 2021 suggests that a large-scale citizen mobilization could face a more immediate, widespread, and severe response than that observed during the July 11, 2021, protests.
Read the full report here in Spanish.