Mexico Analyzes Cuba Help: The Week in O&G
President Sheinbaum announced on June 22 that Mexico is working to restart oil exports to Cuba through privately licensed fuel transport companies rather than PEMEX directly.
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Sheinbaum Proposes Private Channel to Resume Oil Shipments to Cuba
PEMEX’s 1Q26 SEC filing shows Cuba exports collapsed 96% year-on-year to just 900b/d, from approximately 17.2Mb/d in 2025. The suspension followed Trump’s January executive order threatening tariffs on countries supplying Cuba with petroleum. Cuba’s energy crisis has since deepened dramatically, with power outages exceeding 18 hours daily in some regions, compounded by Venezuela halting its own shipments in December 2025 and the US sanctioning CUPET in June. Any resumed flow through private channels still faces secondary sanctions risk, and the proposal is likely to surface as a friction point in the ongoing USMCA bilateral review talks.
Domestic Violence Allegations Block Former PEMEX Director’s Return to Public Service
The government blocked the appointment of former PEMEX Director General Víctor Rodríguez Padilla as head of INEEL on June 26 after his wife, Dr. María Felicia Jiménez, published video footage on YouTube showing a physical altercation on March 15, 2026, while he was still the sitting PEMEX Director, in the presence of a minor child. President Sheinbaum confirmed the INEEL appointment decree was never signed and ruled out any return to public office under a zero-tolerance stance. The Secretaría de las Mujeres established contact with Jiménez to provide accompaniment and protective measures.
PEMEX Disputes Investment Cut Story But Does Not Deny Quarterly Shortfall
PEMEX issued an official rebuttal to an El Universal report claiming the company again cut E&P capital deployment in 1Q26, asserting that its full-year 2026 upstream investment plan totals MX$102.1 billion, MX$81.6 billion in own resources plus MX$20.5 billion from an SHCP-Banobras financing program. The dispute is one of framing, not figures: El Universal’s report, citing PEMEX’s own SEC filings, showed that the MX$81.6 billion in own-resource investment for 1Q26 fell 5.9% short of the MX$86.7 billion quarterly budget approved for the period, a gap PEMEX’s rebuttal broadened around without directly addressing.
PEMEX Denies Spill at Bahía La Ventosa; Fishermen and Authorities Disagree
PEMEX published an informational card on June 24 denying the presence of hydrocarbons at Bahía La Ventosa beach in Salina Cruz, while simultaneously confirming it detected and removed greasy residues in the adjacent Boca del Río estuary, a partial acknowledgment that the municipality’s ecology director, fishermen, and local authorities used to reject PEMEX’s denial as what they called “a mockery.” Municipal tours documented black viscous stains, a petroleum odor, and oily residue along 6km of beach and 3km out to sea. An unidentified group collecting contaminated sand in 50kg sacks on June 25 raised further questions about who authorized the cleanup.
Oil Falls Below US$70/b as Hormuz Traffic Normalizes; Mexico’s Fiscal Buffer Evaporates
WTI crude fell to a session low of US$69.63/b on June 25, its first sub-US$70 print since early March, as increasing tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and UAE export recovery to 85% of pre-war levels effectively priced the four-month Iran supply shock out of the market. Brent dropped 4.2% to US$73.83/b. From the wartime peak of US$126/b, prices have shed more than US$56/b in roughly three months, one of the fastest sustained collapses in modern market history outside of the COVID demand shock. The IMO secured safety guarantees enabling the exit of more than 11,000 stranded seafarers, while the US Treasury’s 60-day Iranian oil sanctions waiver added prospective supply.