The ABF Squeeze: Why Cutting China’s Supply Will Not Fix the Shortage
AI chips are consuming more substrate material just as manufacturing yields are becoming harder to improve
A rumour circulating through Asia’s semiconductor supply chain has attracted considerable attention. Ajinomoto, the Japanese chemicals group whose build-up film has become an indispensable material for advanced semiconductor substrates, is said to be considering a roughly 30% reduction in shipments to Chinese customers. The idea, according to industry chatter, would be to redirect scarce material towards Japan, Taiwan and other customers serving the booming artificial-intelligence market.
Note: This is only a rumor at this stage and has not been officially announced or confirmed.
For substrate makers struggling to secure enough Ajinomoto Build-up Film, or ABF, that sounds encouraging.
The arithmetic is less so.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/jett-c-17972258/recent-activity/images/
Below we will share:
China accounts for only around **% of global ABF consumption (Taiwan **%, Japan **% ), according to industry estimates. Even assuming that the rumoured 30% cut is real—and that every square metre taken away from Chinese customers can immediately be reassigned elsewhere—the amount released would equal only:
