Russian Drone in Romania Was a Deliberate Provocation, Goble Says
Russia’s latest drone incursion into Romanian territory was not an accident but a state-sanctioned provocation aimed at fracturing NATO unity and intimidating neighboring Moldova, according to Paul Goble, a veteran American analyst and former Soviet affairs specialist with the CIA and US State Department.
Goble told Kyiv Post that Vladimir Putin’s public denials are a predictable tactic meant to slow Western decision-making.
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“You would expect Mr. Putin to deny this, because he gains if people ask questions about it rather than if they unite against what is an act of aggression against a NATO country.”
Putin’s alibi from Astana
Speaking at a summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, Putin attempted to deflect blame onto Ukraine, suggesting the drone – which struck a residential building in Galați – had strayed off course because of a technical failure.
“Who in Romania says that this is a Russian drone?” Putin asked. “No one can say what the origin of this or that drone is until an examination has been carried out.”
He scoffed at the “Russians are coming” reaction and suggested Bucharest hand over the wreckage for a Russian investigation.
Evidence undercuts Kremlin denials
However, Romanian investigators and President Nicușor Dan said the wreckage belonged to a Russian Geran-2 drone tracked from Russia. Goble dismissed Putin’s defense, saying the evidence speaks for itself.
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Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin has commented on the recent incident in which a drone crashed into a residential building in Romania, during an overnight attack on Ukraine. Putin claimed he had only just been informed of the incident and argued no one can determine the origin of the drone without an expert examination.
“So, I’m not surprised that Putin said that,” Goble said. “It’s fairly clear from what the Romanians who examined the drone have said that it couldn’t have come from somewhere else.”
While Putin feigned surprise, Goble said he was certain the Russian president had authorized the operation.
“I don’t know whether he personally knew all the details,” Goble said. “But I’m absolutely certain that he signed off on the idea that Russian drones could be used against Romania.”
Targeting the Bucharest-Chisinau alliance
Goble said the motive is tied to Russia’s anxiety over Moldova, whose pro-Western government is forging close ties with Bucharest. Moscow, he said, is using border friction as a tool of intimidation.
The Kremlin risks incursions, Goble said, “especially now when Russia is locked in a rather tense relationship with the Moldovan government, which is ever closer to Bucharest.”
For NATO, the incident highlights a key challenge: responding to hybrid threats without falling into the public division Putin is gambling on.