The UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan (UN Commission) reported Thursday that a rise in violence and atrocity crimes is disrupting South Sudan’s conflict resolution trajectory as the country is set to hold its first elections since independence. Under the authority of President Salva Kiir and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement In-Government (SPLM-IG) political faction, the region has experienced “aggravated political strife, violence, and displacement, compounding the perceived marginalization of certain groups.”
In March 2025, fighting erupted between government forces (SSPDF) and the “White Army,” a youth militia associated with the SPLM-IG in Nasir, Upper Nile. The government is reported to have bombed a populated area, resulting in burned civilians in Nasir, Longechuk, and Ulang counties. The violence spread to Jonglei State, and by March 2026, over 100,000 people were fleeing across the border to Ethiopia.
The commission has documented conflict-related violations, sexual violence, and the recruitment and use of children in hostilities in various locations, including Western Equatoria in 2021 and 2024; Unity State in 2018, 2022, and 2026; and now Nasir and Jonglei. The violence has been attributed to concerns over the use of oil revenue by South Sudan’s political and military elites, leading to malnutrition and exclusion from educational and health care resources.
Despite this instability, the government plans to move forward with the December 2026 elections. In July 2026, President Kiir signed a bill to remove pre-election requirements outlined in the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (RARCSS). RARCSS is a peace agreement signed in 2018 to end the 2013-2018 Sudan Civil War between followers of President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar. It comprised six chapters and goals to ensure constitutionally sound and politically stable elections: (1) governance, (2) permanent ceasefire and security arrangements, (3) humanitarian assistance, (4) economic and resource management, (5) transitional justice, and (6) a permanent constitution-making process. Assessments conducted in 2022, 2024, and 2026 reveal that these goals have yet to be implemented.
In addition to the threat of violence, the UN Commission members are concerned about the increasing exclusivity of political participation and the propensity of the upcoming election to enhance existing divisions. Commissioner Barney Afako noted, “The guns are returning while the safeguards for peaceful political competition are disappearing. That is a profoundly dangerous trajectory.” The credibility of the election rests not on whether it occurs as planned, but whether it embodies democracy, according to Commissioner Carlos Castresana Fernández. To ensure integrity, he says, citizens should be able to “vote without fear,” political opponents must “participate freely,” courts shall “resolve disputes independently,” and institutions require the ability to “constrain the exercise of power.”