Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Iturup Island (known in Japan as Etorofu) on August 13. It’s the largest of the disputed Southern Kurils, which are known as the Northern Territories in Japan. The islands have been occupied by Russia since the end of World War II but are also claimed by Japan.
The Kuril Islands have been a constant thorn in Japan-Russia relations. The disputed islands are one of the reasons that Japan and Russia have yet to sign a peace treaty concluding World War II.
Japan has long sought to foster economic cooperation with Russia as part of a broader push to normalize relations – and finally resolve the dispute. The Kuril Islands/Northern Territories issue was especially close to the heart of former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo, given its importance to his father, Abe Shintaro, during the elder Abe’s tenure as Japan’s foreign minister.
However, the circumstances for Japan-Russia rapprochement are unfavorable. Since 2022, Japan has joined the United States and European states in condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and imposing sanctions on Russia. After Japan imposed sanctions, Russia formally suspended peace treaty negotiations and canceled visa-free travel for Japanese nationals to visit ancestral graves on the disputed islands.
Now Putin’s visit to one of the disputed islands has enflamed tensions still further. Then-President Dmitry Medvedev visited in 2010; however, this is the first time Putin has done so.
Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae responded in a televised statement on the same day as Putin’s visit, saying that his trip “hurts the feelings of the Japanese people and is absolutely unacceptable.” She added, “We hope that the Russian side will take the seriousness of the matter fully to heart.”
She told reporters, “I must say [his visit] has further hardened public sentiment toward Russia in Japan, making it difficult to restore relations over the medium to long term.”
Though Japan’s response could have been limited to the Foreign Ministry, Takaichi chose to make a statement herself, given her belief that the prime minister must take a strong stance on territorial issues, according to reporting in The Japan News. Now that the issue has been escalated to the prime ministerial level, it will also make quiet de-escalation more difficult.
Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin summoned Japan’s ambassador in Moscow, Muto Akira, to lodge a formal protest over Takaichi’s “anti-Russia” statements. “The Russian side stated that Russia’s sovereignty and jurisdiction over the southern Kuril Islands are inviolable,” Galuzin told Muto, according to a press release from the Russian Foreign Ministry. “…Any attempts by the Japanese side to directly or indirectly call this obvious reality into question are categorically unacceptable and illegitimate.”
Why would Putin choose this moment to visit the Northern Territories? There are long-, medium-, and short-term considerations. In the long term, Japan’s predictable protest to Putin’s visit would give Russia, China, and North Korean an opportunity to rally together against Japan’s “aggressive” response – which Russia itself provoked.
In the medium term, Japan’s heightened energy vulnerability due to the ongoing Iran war will limit any real, substantive response by Tokyo. The Middle East is an unreliable source of energy amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and Japan is already doing the most it can to carve out exemptions for its Russian energy imports. Japan imported 9 percent of its total LNG imports from Russia and received an extension from the United States for its continued exemption to import LNG from Sakhalin-2 from June to December 2026. In May, Japan began importing Russian petroleum as well.
90 percent of Japan’s petroleum imports and 6 percent of Japan’s LNG imports transit the Strait of Hormuz. Therefore, as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, Japanese leverage over Russia is limited.
In the short term, Putin’s choice to visit the island two days before the 81st anniversary of Japan announcing its intent to surrender in World War II would ensure plenty of coverage in all domestic media at a time when there is heightened sensitivity to war, territorial conquest, and historical injustices.
Indeed, on the same day as Putin’s visit, the Chinese and Russian ambassadors to Japan issued a joint statement that “the contribution of our people to the victory [in World War II] laid a solid foundation for the postwar world order.” They also pledged to oppose attempts to revise the results of World War II and warned against remilitarization in the region.
There will also be a lower house election in Russia this September, for the first time since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
There were always political and diplomatic benefits to visiting the Kuril Islands, and Putin chose a moment when the benefits would be maximized and the costs minimized.
Notably, Putin’s visit came amid ongoing naval drills by Russia’s Pacific Fleet near the disputed islands, which also earned a sharp protest from Japan. The live-fire exercises around two of the four Kuril Islands are scheduled to last until August 29, according to Russia’s notice of a designated maritime exclusion zone. Putin traveled to oversee the military exercise in person before stopping at Iturup Island.
How should Japan respond? In the short term, Japan’s response will be calibrated to what steps Russia takes next, and it is impossible to predict. In the medium term, Japan should further strengthen ties with European countries also dealing with the Russian threat.
In the long term, Japan needs to bring more renewable energy online. If it is difficult to cut off Russian LNG at this time, as Takaichi has argued to the United States in the recent past, then let this moment be a wakeup call to start treating Japan’s energy security with the seriousness that it deserves.