DRC, South Sudan overtake Kenya as Uganda’s top export markets
Uganda’s trade map has shifted sharply over the past three months, as long-time leading buyer Kenya dropped behind neighboring markets amid persistent non-tariff barriers and policy shifts. Instead, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DR Congo), South Sudan, and Rwanda have absorbed the volumes Ugandan traders can no longer move easily across the northern border.
According to the latest Bank of Uganda (BoU) monthly export report, export receipts from Kenya plummeted from a high of $72 million (Shs266.4 billion) in May 2025 to $45 million (Shs166.5 billion) in April 2026, $39.3 million (Shs145.4 billion) in May 2026, and down to $19.8 million (Shs73.3 billion) in June 2026. The slide represents a drop of more than 72 percent from its 2025 peak, pushing Kenya outside Uganda’s top three export destinations for the first time in recent history.
Explaining the factors behind the drop in Uganda’s traditional exports to Kenya, Dr. Adam Mugume, the BoU Director of Research, noted that primary commodities face both environmental and market structural challenges.
“Uganda has been exporting maize, beans, and tea to Kenya,” Dr. Mugume said, adding that maize exports have been affected in part by weather conditions, alongside deliberate efforts by the Kenyan government to step up efforts to achieve self-sufficiency in maize production.
Addressing the drop in tea earnings, Dr. Mugume explained, “When it comes to tea exports, it is because Ugandan tea is auctioned at Mombasa as Kenyan tea. But because of low prices, farmers decided to uproot tea and plant coffee.”
The deficit left by Kenya has been rapidly absorbed by Uganda’s neighbors to the west and north. In June 2026, Uganda earned $79.4 million (Shs293.8 billion) from exports to DR Congo, up from $77 million (Shs284.9 billion) in May and $71 million (Shs262.7 billion) in April. The surge makes Kinshasa and eastern Congolese border towns Uganda’s single largest market for the period under review.
South Sudan also saw substantial growth, with export receipts rising to $73.6 million (Shs272.3 billion) in June—a marked increase from $49.6 million (Shs183.5 billion) in May. Traders attribute the gain to robust demand in Juba and other urban centers for foodstuffs, building materials, and fast-moving consumer goods, coupled with faster border clearing at Elegu and Oraba compared to the Busia and Malaba points.
Concurrently, trade with Rwanda expanded, with exports reaching $43.9 million (Shs162.4 billion) in June, up from $29.2 million (Shs108 million) in May. The growth reflects increased volumes of maize, beans, and cement, alongside renewed business confidence following stabilized bilateral relations. Even Tanzania and Burundi recorded positive momentum, taking in $20.2 million (Shs74.7 billion) and $13 million (Shs48.1 billion) worth of Ugandan exports in June, respectively.
Exporters and trade analysts link Kenya’s decline directly to administrative hurdles and sector-specific policy interventions. Non-tariff barriers—including extra inspections, changing standards requirements, and delays at the border—continue to drive up costs for local logistics operators.
A significant driver of the reduced trade value stems from regional sugar policies. Mr. John Bosco Lwere, Manager for Export Development at the Uganda Free Zones & Export Promotion Authority (UFZEPA), pointed to regulatory adjustments designed to cushion domestic producers.
“This most probably revolves around sugar. In 2025/26, the Kenya government has implemented a number of policies in a bid to protect its local sugar industry. For example, you will have to look at the issue of increased excise duties on imported sugar,” Mr. Lwere said.
He noted that rising domestic output in Kenya has further narrowed the deficit previously supplied by regional partners. “It is also reported that sugar production has gone up in Kenya to about 800,000 tonnes, narrowing the gap against the approximately 950,000 tonnes of consumption. You will also have to look at sugar imports from COMESA and EAC partner states by Kenya under the regional frameworks,” Mr. Lwere added. As a result, Ugandan sugar exports to Kenya slumped from $41.12 million in the third quarter of 2025 to $12.11 million in the first quarter of 2026.
Despite the geographic rebalancing, broader export performance registered a minor decline. Total receipts eased to $1.3 billion (Shs4.81 trillion) in June from $1.35 billion (Shs4.995 trillion) in May, driven primarily by fluctuations in global commodity prices and logistics friction along the Kenyan corridor.
However, analysts view the geographic diversification into value-added goods, such as milk powder, steel, cooking oil, and packaged foods, as a strategic cushion that protects local manufacturers against single-market dependencies.