Producers believe Iran War will drop 2026 farm income

Producers believe Iran War will drop 2026 farm income

Published 7:00 am Wednesday, June 3, 2026

High input costs lower farmer sentiment in May

Farmer sentiment slipped again in May as high input costs remained producers’ top concern, according to the latest edition of the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.

Roughly two-thirds of producers continue to expect their net farm income to decline in 2026 due to the Iran War, which has resulted in increased fuel and fertilizer costs.

The barometer dipped to 119 points, down from 121 in April.

In May 2025, a few months after President Donald Trump began his second term in office, the score was 158 — the highest mark since May 2021.

The wave of optimism has mostly receded, with recent marks slightly above pessimistic scores from the previous administration.

Only 52% of producers thought the U.S. was headed in the “right direction” in May, down from 57% in April and the lowest response since the question was first asked during the July barometer survey.

For the second half of 2025, the average to that question, which encompasses far more than agriculture, was 71%, with a high of 75% in December.

The May barometer survey, conducted May 11-15, included 400 farmers from across the country.

Respondents include corn, soybean, wheat and cotton growers and producers of beef cattle, hogs and dairy.

Inputs constrain farm financials

The percentage of producers who listed high input costs as their biggest concern was 51% this May, a new high.

In a related question, nearly 46% of respondents said high input costs are limiting improvements in their financial position this year.

That was the most frequently cited constraint by far.

Weather risk was second at 19%, followed by low output prices at 14%, labor and equipment concerns at 9% and debt or financial pressure at 5%.

Roughly half of corn growers expected their corn breakeven prices to increase by up to 6%. About 17% expected breakeven prices to increase by 6-9% and 30% anticipated them to increase by 10% or more.

Difficulty hiring farm labor

The barometer survey periodically includes questions about farm labor.

In May, about 39% of respondents said they hire non-family members to work on their agricultural operations.

Of those who hire labor, roughly 44% had some or a lot of difficulty hiring this year.

Most respondents, 59%, said artificial intelligence tools would not improve their current labor and equipment situation, while 37% said it would help some and 4% said it would help a lot.

Few farmers think they’re better off

The barometer’s Current Conditions Index fell by 8 points to 107, the lowest score since December 2024.

Only 14% of survey respondents said their farm operations were better off in May than a year ago.

About 22% said they expect their farm to be better off financially a year from now.

Roughly 37% of producers expected good times over the next five years — that figure was 31% for crop growers and 68% for livestock producers.

Farmers indicated a decline in willingness to make large investments but were more optimistic regarding both short-term and long-term land values.