Over 113,000 Russians Flee to Georgia Amid Draft Rumors
More than 113,000 Russian citizens crossed into Georgia through the Verkhny Lars checkpoint over the past week following rumors of a new military draft, Politico reported
On Aug. 20 alone, over 20,000 people crossed the border. Russia’s Federal Customs Service confirmed the figures significantly exceed crossing levels from previous years.
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Armenia is also preparing for a potential influx of draft evaders. Alen Simonyan, Secretary of the Security Council of Armenia, told TV Rain that Yerevan will not hinder those seeking to avoid being sent to the Ukrainian front.
“To a Russian person, I can say only one thing: ‘Welcome to Armenia,’” Simonyan said, as cited by The Moscow Times. “Here they will find everything they were looking for… And they will return to Russia whenever it is convenient for them.”
The surge at the borders coincides with intensified Kremlin efforts to recruit contract soldiers and expand data collection on reservists, primarily targeting men under the age of 55.
Despite these measures, Russia’s Permanent Representative to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, stated on Aug. 20 that a new mobilization is “not planned and not expected.” Sources indicate Russia has struggled to consistently recruit its target of 30,000 contract soldiers per month this year, with figures dropping to 27,000 in certain months.
Ukrainian intelligence assesses that Russia plans to mobilize an additional 600,000 personnel across 2026 and 2027. Amid these reports, a state-run VTsIOM poll conducted in July 2026 showed that 66% of Russians believe “difficult times” lie ahead for the country, marking a 16-percentage-point increase since the beginning of the year.
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Surge in housing demand in the South Caucasus
The recent border crossings follow earlier reports of Russian citizens rushing to secure long-term rentals in neighboring countries.
Independent Russian news website Important Stories reported that demand for apartments in Tbilisi and Yerevan was up to 30% higher in mid-August compared to the same period last year.
Local realtors noted that apartments are selling out rapidly, drawing comparisons to the massive exodus of approximately 700,000 people following Russia’s initial mobilization drive in September 2022. Organizations assisting potential emigrants have reported a near doubling of interest in recent months.
President Volodymyr Zelensky previously warned that Moscow could seek to mobilize several hundred thousand citizens by the end of the year.
Analysts suggest the Kremlin may delay any official announcement until after the Russian parliamentary elections in September to mitigate domestic political risks.