Osoble: Somalia cannot afford another term of failed leadership

By Ali Abdullahi Osoble,  Former President of Hirshabelle State
Monday August 24, 2026

Former Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire recently published an op-ed arguing that Somalia cannot afford another term of lost wealth. He asks Somalis to judge leadership by results rather than promises. On that principle, I agree with him.

But that standard must apply equally to those who seek to govern Somalia again.

Khaire served as Prime Minister from 2017 to 2020. Before presenting himself as the answer to Somalia’s problems, his own record deserves examination: security, state authority, federalism and democratic transition. This is not about denying him the right to criticize. It is about applying to him the same test he applies to others.

The security record cannot be forgotten

Only months after Khaire took office, on 14 June 2017, al-Shabaab attacked the Pizza House and Posh Treats complex in Mogadishu. A vehicle bomb was followed by gunmen entering the restaurant. Thirty-one people were killed and nearly 40 wounded.

Then came 14 October 2017. A massive truck bomb devastated Zoobe/K5 Junction in Mogadishu, producing the deadliest terrorist bombing Somalia had ever experienced. The United Nations subsequently put the death toll at at least 587, with hundreds more injured. Khaire declared war on al-Shabaab. But the attacks continued.

On 28 October 2017, al-Shabaab attacked the Naasa Hablood Two Hotel in Mogadishu, killing and injuring dozens. On 23 February 2018, vehicle bombs struck central Mogadishu, including near the presidential palace area, killing 38 people. On 7 July 2018, bombers and gunmen attacked the compound housing the Interior and Security Ministries, killing and injuring civilians and government employees. On 9 November 2018, vehicle bombs and gunmen struck the Sahafi Hotel area, killing more than 50 people and injuring more than 100.

On 28 February 2019, a car bombing and prolonged armed siege struck Maka Al-Mukarama Road, one of Mogadishu’s busiest commercial corridors, killing and injuring scores. On 23 March 2019, al-Shabaab attacked the Ministries of Labour and Public Works, killing a deputy minister and other civilians. Five days later, another bomb struck a restaurant on Maka Al-Mukarama Road during lunchtime, killing at least 15 people.

On 12 July 2019, al-Shabaab attacked the Asasey Hotel in Kismayo, killing 26 people and wounding 56. On 22 July 2019, a suicide car bomb struck the busy KM4/airport-road area of Mogadishu, killing at least 17 people and wounding 28. Two days later, a suicide bomber struck the Banadir Regional Administration headquarters. Mogadishu Mayor Abdirahman Omar Osman “Yarisow” was critically wounded and later died.

Then, on 28 December 2019, another catastrophe struck Ex-Control Afgoye Junction in Mogadishu. Scores of people were killed and many more injured, including university students and ordinary civilians.

These were not distant battlefield casualties. Somalis were being killed in restaurants, hotels, offices, commercial streets and crowded intersections. Al-Shabaab was also assassinating government employees, electoral delegates, elders and other civilians. Behind every statistic was a Somali family that buried someone.

If Khaire believes ordinary families should be the measure of government performance, as he argues in his own op-ed, then the Somali families who lost loved ones during these attacks must also count. The question is unavoidable: how secure were ordinary Somalis during the years Khaire headed the government?

Al-Shabaab was not only killing Somalis. It was taxing them

During Khaire’s premiership, al-Shabaab developed an extensive parallel taxation system, extracting money from businesses, traders and markets through intimidation and threats of violence. More troublingly, al-Shabaab reportedly gained access to information about imports and importers using Mogadishu Port, allowing it to assess businesses and demand payments.

Think about what that represented. The Federal Government was collecting lawful taxes while a terrorist organization was extracting money from some of the same businesses. The government had tax and customs officials. Al-Shabaab effectively had its own tax collectors. This was not ordinary criminality. It was a challenge to state sovereignty. A terrorist organization capable of bombing the capital, assassinating civilians, identifying businesses, assessing their commercial activities and coercing them into paying taxes was competing with the government in two of the most fundamental responsibilities of a state: protecting citizens and exercising lawful authority over taxation. Any discussion of state capacity during Khaire’s premiership must confront that reality.

Federalism became political confrontation

Khaire now speaks about governance and institutional integrity. My own experience tells a different story. As the first elected President of Hirshabelle State, after my unlawful removal from office in August 2017, I publicly accused Prime Minister Khaire of interfering in Hirshabelle’s internal affairs and supporting the parliamentary campaign against my administration. I said at the time that Khaire had been behind what happened and had used members of his government to support the effort against my administration. I also accused his government of withholding federal resources and using financial pressure against Hirshabelle.

But Hirshabelle was not an isolated case. In Baidoa in December 2018, the Federal Government became deeply involved in the South West presidential election. Former presidential candidate Mukhtar Robow was arrested shortly before the election. His arrest triggered demonstrations. The consequences were deadly. A UN Panel of Experts investigation subsequently verified 15 civilian deaths during the unrest after federal and regional security forces used lethal force. This was a political confrontation surrounding a Federal Member State election in which Somali civilians lost their lives.

Then came Galmudug. President Ahmed Duale Gelle “Haaf” became locked in confrontation with the Federal Government amid political efforts to restructure the state and competing claims over its leadership and electoral process. Khaire’s government became deeply involved in Galmudug politics rather than allowing federal institutions to develop through genuine political accommodation. Even Banadir experienced similar political tensions. Governor and Mogadishu Mayor Thabit Abdi Mohamed was removed in January 2018 amid disagreement over Banadir’s political status and representation. For me, this is not political theory. I experienced it.

The democratic transition was not delivered

There is another record Khaire cannot escape. The government he headed committed itself to preparing Somalia for one-person-one-vote elections, the country’s first direct national elections in decades. Preparing the legislation, electoral institutions, security arrangements and administrative machinery necessary for that transition was one of the central responsibilities of his government. Khaire had more than three years to help deliver it. Yet when his premiership ended in July 2020, Somalia still lacked a workable pathway for conducting the promised direct elections on schedule.

On 25 July 2020, the House of the People withdrew confidence from Khaire’s government. Parliamentary Speaker Mohamed Mursal specifically cited security and the government’s failure to provide an adequate plan for holding the promised elections. Khaire now speaks about accountable government. Then he must answer a simple question: What happened to the democratic transition his own government promised to deliver?

The same standard must apply to Khaire

I do not raise this record merely to relitigate the past. I raise it because Hassan Ali Khaire is seeking Somalia’s highest office and has asked Somalis to judge leadership by results. I accept his standard.

If security is the measure, then the civilians killed at Zoobe, Pizza House, Sahafi, Maka Al-Mukarama, Kismayo, KM4 and Ex-Control Afgoye must be remembered. If state capacity is the measure, then al-Shabaab’s ability to tax businesses and penetrate commercial information in Mogadishu must be remembered. If good governance and federalism are the measure, then Hirshabelle, Baidoa, Galmudug and Banadir must be remembered. If democratic accountability is the measure, then the failure to deliver the promised electoral transition must be remembered. And if leadership is the measure, then the fact that Khaire’s premiership ultimately ended when Parliament withdrew its confidence must also form part of his record.

Somalia cannot afford selective memory

Khaire concludes his own argument by saying that leaders should ultimately be judged not by promises but by what ordinary Somali families experience in their daily lives. Again, I agree. So let us apply that test consistently.

Ask the families who buried loved ones after Zoobe. Ask the families whose children died at Ex-Control Afgoye. Ask the civilians who survived attacks on restaurants, hotels and commercial streets. Ask the businesses that were paying the government while simultaneously being threatened for payments by al-Shabaab. Ask the families of those killed during the political violence in Baidoa. Ask those of us who experienced federal political interference directly. And ask the Somali people who were promised one-person-one-vote elections but did not receive them.

Hassan Ali Khaire has every right to seek the presidency. But he does not return as an untested candidate. He returns as a former prime minister with a record.

Somalia needs leaders who can protect citizens, restore the authority of the state, respect federal institutions, advance democratic government and accept the same accountability they demand from everyone else. Khaire says Somalia cannot afford another term of lost wealth. There is something even more precious that Somalia cannot afford to lose again: its people, its security, its institutions and its opportunities.

Before Somalia decides whether to give Hassan Ali Khaire another opportunity to lead, it should examine carefully what happened when he had the first one.

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Ali Abdullahi Osoble is the former President of Hirshabelle State.