Morocco could warm 4.6°C by 2100 under current emissions path, study finds

Morocco’s average temperature could rise by about 4.6 degrees Celsius by the end of the century if global greenhouse gas emissions remain close to their current trajectory, according to climate projections from Berkeley Earth.

The projections estimate that Morocco could experience 4.55°C of warming above the late 19th-century average by 2100 under the SSP2-4.5 scenario.

The scenario represents a future in which countries make some progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, but global emissions remain relatively high through the middle of the century. Berkeley Earth identifies SSP2-4.5 as the closest of the three scenarios it modeled to the world’s current emissions trajectory.

Morocco has already experienced significant warming compared with the late 19th century. Its average temperature in 2022 was 2.45°C above the historical baseline, while its 10-year average stood at 2.10°C, according to Berkeley Earth.

The extent of future warming will depend heavily on global emissions trends.

Under the more climate-friendly SSP1-2.6 scenario, in which greenhouse gas emissions decline rapidly and global carbon dioxide emissions eventually reach net zero, Morocco’s average warming would reach about 3.04°C by 2100.

Under the high-emissions SSP3-7.0 scenario, where countries fail to significantly curb emissions and global carbon dioxide emissions continue to rise, Morocco could see average warming of about 6.59°C by the end of the century.

For comparison, global average warming under the same high-emissions scenario is projected at about 3.6°C by 2100.

Morocco could experience significantly greater warming than the global average because land areas generally warm faster than oceans.

Morocco’s relatively low emissions

Despite the scale of the projected warming, Morocco’s per-capita carbon dioxide emissions remain relatively low compared with the global average.

The country emitted about 68.6 million metric tons of CO2 in 2022, equivalent to about 1.83 tons per person, compared with a global average of 4.66 tons per person.

Morocco ranked 133rd globally in per-capita CO2 emissions, while its cumulative emissions were estimated at about 1.88 billion tons, according to Berkeley Earth.

However, the country’s emissions have been increasing. Berkeley Earth estimates that Morocco’s per-capita emissions rose by about 0.028 tons per year between 2010 and 2019.

The projections underscore that Morocco’s future climate will depend not only on its own emissions policies but also on the amount of greenhouse gases released globally over the coming decades.

One editorial note: I would avoid the phrase “if emissions stay on current path” in the headline unless Berkeley Earth explicitly characterizes SSP2-4.5 that way. Your copy says it is the closest of the three modeled pathways to the current trajectory, which is more precise than saying it is literally the current path.