Lula holds narrow lead over Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil election: Poll
Gizem Nisa Demir
15 August 2026•Update: 15 August 2026
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva holds a narrow lead over Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of October’s presidential election, according to a new Quaest poll commissioned by Brazilian media group Globo.
The poll, conducted on Aug. 10-13 among 2,004 people, found Lula leading Bolsonaro 43% to 40% in a simulated runoff, effectively a statistical tie given the two-point margin of error.
Lula led 44% to 39% in a similar poll on Aug. 5.
In a first-round scenario, Lula received 38%, compared with 31% for Bolsonaro. Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado each had 4%, while Romeu Zema had 2%.
Under Brazilian electoral rules, the top two candidates advance to a runoff if no one wins more than half of the valid votes.
Brazil’s election tightens
Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, has become the leading candidate for Brazil’s political right after his father was barred from running.
Jair Bolsonaro was declared ineligible by Brazil’s top electoral court for abusing his political power and was later convicted over a plot to overturn his 2022 election defeat to Lula.
Lula launched his reelection campaign on Aug. 2 at the Workers’ Party convention in Sao Paulo, framing the race around national sovereignty amid pressure from US President Donald Trump’s administration.
“I want to be prepared, so that no one invades this country,” Lula said, while pledging to protect Brazil’s rare earths and other critical minerals from foreign control.
He warned that China, the US, and France would not gain access to Brazil’s mineral wealth without respecting its sovereignty.
“In Brazil, we do not accept anyone sticking their nose where it does not belong,” he said.
Trump has maintained close ties with the Bolsonaro family. Lula warned him in June against intervening in Brazil’s election, saying: “Don’t meddle in the Brazilian elections, because the Brazilian elections are a Brazilian problem, just as American elections are their business, not mine.”
With the vote roughly two months away, the latest polling points to a tightening contest, although Lula retains a narrow advantage.