Mohamed Alabbar Eyes Zimbabwe as Dubai Luxury Hotels Struggle

Mohamed Alabbar, founder of Emaar Properties and the developer behind Dubai’s Burj Khalifa, is exploring luxury hotel investment in Zimbabwe as Dubai’s high-end hospitality industry struggles through a dramatic 2026 downturn.

The timing creates an irresistible question: Is one of Dubai’s most influential developers diversifying away from a suddenly vulnerable hotel market, or has Alabbar identified something much bigger — an underdeveloped luxury tourism opportunity in Zimbabwe and across Africa?

DUBAI / HARARE — Dubai built one of the greatest tourism success stories in modern history. Now, one of the men who helped build it is looking toward Zimbabwe.

Mohamed Alabbar, founder of Emaar Properties and the developer behind some of Dubai’s most famous real estate projects, including the Burj Khalifa, is exploring a major luxury hospitality investment in Zimbabwe following discussions with Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa.

The timing could hardly be more intriguing.

Dubai’s hotel industry has been hit by an extraordinary downturn in 2026. Luxury hotels have been among the hardest hit, raising an obvious question:

Is Alabbar looking for a way out of an increasingly difficult Dubai hotel market — or has one of the architects of Dubai’s luxury economy identified an opportunity in Africa that much of the international hospitality industry has overlooked?

The evidence increasingly points toward the second explanation.

Dubai’s hotel problem is real

There is no point pretending Dubai is experiencing business as usual.

The emirate entered 2026 after another record tourism year. Dubai welcomed 19.59 million international overnight visitors in 2025, while average hotel occupancy reached 80.7%.

January 2026 looked even better. Approximately two million international visitors arrived during the month, and hotel occupancy was around 86%.

Then regional conflict and disruption to international aviation dramatically changed the picture.

During the first half of 2026, average Dubai hotel occupancy dropped to approximately 56.4%, compared with around 81% a year earlier.

The luxury sector suffered even more.

Average luxury hotel occupancy was reported at approximately 51.2%, while upper-upscale hotels averaged around 51.8%.

At the height of the disruption in March, industry data indicated that occupancy temporarily plunged to around 16%.

Some hotels closed floors. Others temporarily suspended operations. Thousands of rooms were removed from active supply as operators used the downturn for renovations or waited for demand to recover.

That is a genuine crisis by Dubai standards. But calling Dubai a city of “empty hotels” today would also be misleading.

Air capacity and passenger numbers have been recovering, and Accor reported that Dubai had returned to year-on-year hotel growth in July.

Dubai therefore appears to be experiencing a severe external shock rather than the disappearance of its tourism industry. And that distinction matters when examining Alabbar’s African ambitions.

Was Zimbabwe a panic response to Dubai?

There is a simple reason this explanation does not stand up particularly well.

Alabbar was already looking at Zimbabwe before Dubai’s 2026 hotel crisis existed.

In February 2024, Alabbar met President Mnangagwa in Dubai and discussed potential investments involving hotels and luxury apartments in Zimbabwe. That was approximately two years before the regional crisis that devastated Dubai hotel demand in 2026. His latest discussions therefore appear to be a continuation — and perhaps an acceleration — of an existing strategy.

Alabbar is also not simply a Dubai property developer. His business interests and Emaar-linked developments have extended across numerous international markets. Geographic diversification has long been part of the business model.

What Dubai’s 2026 experience may have done, however, is make the logic of diversification considerably more compelling.

Dubai demonstrates what happens when a destination with enormous hotel inventory becomes dependent on enormous volumes of international aviation. Zimbabwe presents almost the opposite investment proposition.

Dubai has enormous hotel supply. Zimbabwe doesn’t.

This could be the real story. Dubai has spent decades building hotels. Zimbabwe has internationally recognized attractions but comparatively limited high-quality accommodation. Victoria Falls illustrates the imbalance.

Zimbabwe’s investment promotion authorities estimate that the destination has only around 2,000 hotel rooms, with much of the inventory concentrated around the three-star category.

For an investor specializing in premium real estate and hospitality, that represents something very different from Dubai. It represents scarcity.

• Zimbabwe also possesses tourism assets that cannot be manufactured by another developer.
• Victoria Falls.
• Hwange National Park.
• Mana Pools.
• Lake Kariba.
• Gonarezhou.
• Great Zimbabwe.
• Wildlife, landscapes, culture and enormous amounts of physical space.

Dubai can build another extraordinary hotel. It cannot build another Victoria Falls.

Zimbabwe’s tourism numbers are moving in the right direction

Zimbabwe recorded approximately 1.78 million international tourist arrivals in 2025, around 10% more than in 2024. International tourism receipts reached approximately US$1.3 billion, also increasing by around 10%.

Those numbers are tiny compared with Dubai. But that may actually strengthen the investment argument.

Dubai represents a mature global tourism powerhouse where investors compete within an enormous existing hotel market.

Zimbabwe represents a much smaller destination where an international luxury operator could potentially help create the market rather than simply compete for existing market share.

That distinction becomes especially important at Victoria Falls.

Another Dubai investor has already made the bet

Alabbar is not the only investor from Dubai looking at Zimbabwe.

Dubai-based Albwardy Investments, through ASB Hospitality, acquired the former Kingdom Hotel in Victoria Falls in a transaction reported at approximately US$30 million.

The property is expected to undergo extensive redevelopment and reopen as Grand Hyatt Victoria Falls, currently anticipated for 2027.

That should get the attention of the international hotel investment community. One Dubai investor entering Victoria Falls might be opportunistic. Two major Dubai-linked investors examining the market begins to look like a trend.

Zimbabwe’s established operators are also reporting stronger demand. Rainbow Tourism Group said occupancy at its Victoria Falls properties increased from 54% to 65% during the first half of 2026 despite refurbishment activity.

Those are not the numbers of a destination without customers. They suggest a destination where demand may be developing faster than internationally branded luxury supply.

But Zimbabwe should not try to become another Dubai

This is where the investment opportunity could easily go wrong.

If Zimbabwe interprets Gulf investment as an opportunity to reproduce Dubai architecture and Dubai-style mass luxury in Africa, it may misunderstand its greatest competitive advantage.

Africa does not need another Dubai.

The high-end African traveler increasingly buys something very different.

• Privacy.
• Space.
• Nature.
• Wildlife.
• Authenticity.
• Wellness.
• Conservation.
• Extraordinary food.
• Exceptional personalized service.
• And experiences that cannot easily be replicated somewhere else.

The most valuable hotel at Victoria Falls may therefore not be the biggest hotel.

A 500-room marble palace could potentially be less valuable than an extraordinary collection of villas, suites, lodges and experiences capable of charging premium international rates while maintaining relatively low density.

That is where the African luxury opportunity becomes particularly interesting.

Africa’s luxury hotel gap is bigger than it looks

Hotel development across Africa is accelerating.

The 2026 W Hospitality Group pipeline survey counted approximately 675 hotels and resorts containing 123,846 rooms under development across the continent, an increase of almost 19% from the previous year.

But those rooms are far from evenly distributed. Egypt alone accounts for almost 46,000 pipeline rooms. Morocco has more than 10,000. Nigeria has around 8,480. Kenya has approximately 6,190. Tanzania has more than 4,100.

The luxury numbers reveal something even more interesting. Approximately 19,453 luxury rooms are currently represented in Africa’s development pipeline. Yet only around 3,068 are in sub-Saharan Africa.

More than 16,000 are concentrated in North Africa. For a vast region containing many of the world’s greatest wildlife destinations, beaches and natural attractions, that is an extraordinarily small internationally branded luxury pipeline.

That may be the opportunity Alabbar and other Gulf investors are beginning to recognize.

Zimbabwe may only be the beginning

If the strategy works, Zimbabwe is unlikely to be the only African market capable of attracting this kind of investment.

Zambia offers Victoria Falls from the opposite side of the Zambezi together with Lower Zambezi, South Luangwa and other extraordinary wildlife areas. The country recorded approximately 2.3 million international arrivals in 2025 and is targeting further growth.

Rwanda has already demonstrated the economics of pursuing high-value rather than mass-volume tourism. It generated approximately US$685 million in tourism revenues in 2025 from around 1.49 million visitors while simultaneously developing a valuable meetings and events sector.

Tanzania and Zanzibar have enormous luxury potential but are already further along the development curve, with international hotel brands and safari operators aggressively expanding.

Namibia offers precisely the space, landscapes and low-density luxury proposition sought by affluent experiential travelers.

Mozambique, particularly its Indian Ocean islands and coastline, has extraordinary potential but still faces infrastructure and connectivity constraints.

There are opportunities elsewhere as well.

The investment thesis does not have to be “build African Dubais.” It could be something considerably more sophisticated:

Combine Gulf capital, hospitality expertise and execution capability with African assets that cannot be replicated anywhere else.

Untapped markets are untapped for a reason

There is nevertheless a danger in becoming too enthusiastic about Zimbabwe. An underdeveloped market is not automatically an investment opportunity. Sometimes it is underdeveloped because investment is difficult.

Zimbabwe continues to face challenges involving infrastructure, roads, currency, financing, international payments and investor confidence.

Luxury travelers are also particularly unforgiving. A spectacular US$1,000-a-night hotel room cannot completely compensate for difficult air connections, unreliable infrastructure, payment problems, poor roads or inconsistent service.

Luxury tourism therefore cannot be developed by hotels alone. Zimbabwe would need parallel improvements in aviation access, destination marketing, professional hospitality training, infrastructure, energy reliability and the overall visitor experience.

Regional cooperation around Victoria Falls could be particularly important.

A wealthy visitor traveling halfway around the world does not necessarily care whether an elephant is standing on the Zimbabwean side, Zambian side, Namibian side or Botswana side of a border.

Southern Africa has an opportunity to sell extraordinary multi-country luxury journeys, rather than forcing travelers to think within political boundaries. That could make the regional opportunity considerably larger than any individual hotel development.

And Alabbar has not signed the cheque yet

There is another important reality behind the headlines. At this stage, Alabbar’s Zimbabwe plans remain an investment proposal rather than a completed hotel development. Reports indicate that an executive delegation is expected to inspect possible locations and advance discussions.

There is not yet a publicly confirmed investment amount, hotel brand, exact location, room count, construction timetable or opening date. That distinction matters.

A meeting with a president is not a hotel. A memorandum is not a hotel. A site visit is not a hotel.

A signed land agreement, financing structure, hotel management agreement and construction contract would represent the point at which Zimbabwe could legitimately claim a major new hospitality investment. Until then, this remains a potentially significant story rather than a completed deal.

So is Alabbar escaping Dubai?

Probably not. Dubai’s hotel downturn is serious enough to remind even its most successful developers that geographical diversification matters.

But the chronology does not support the idea that Alabbar suddenly discovered Zimbabwe because Dubai’s hotels became empty.

His documented interest in Zimbabwe dates back to 2024. The more compelling interpretation is that a strategy already under consideration has suddenly become even more relevant.

And perhaps Dubai itself provides the lesson.

For decades, investors made fortunes by recognizing what Dubai could become, rather than looking only at what Dubai was at that moment.

In the 1980s and 1990s, betting on Dubai required imagination. Today it looks obvious. Perhaps some African destinations are approaching a similar moment.

The next luxury frontier may look nothing like Dubai

Zimbabwe does not need 19 million tourists to create an enormously valuable tourism economy. Nor do Zambia, Rwanda, Namibia, Botswana or Mozambique.

For many African destinations, the smarter model may be fewer visitors spending substantially more money, staying longer and distributing that spending into local businesses, conservation, communities, guides, restaurants, transport and experiences.

That is fundamentally different from the mass-volume model.

And it may be particularly attractive to Gulf investors who understand luxury customers but are now being reminded of the risks associated with concentrating too much capital in a single geographic tourism ecosystem. So perhaps the question is not:

Why would the man behind the Burj Khalifa invest in Zimbabwe when Dubai hotels are struggling?

The better question may be:

What has he seen in Zimbabwe that other investors haven’t seen yet?

If Alabbar ultimately commits serious capital, the answer could extend far beyond one hotel or one country.

Dubai demonstrated that tourism infrastructure can transform the international perception of a destination. Africa’s opportunity is not to copy what Dubai built.

It is to take the capital, confidence, marketing intelligence and hospitality expertise that made Dubai successful and apply them to something Dubai can never manufacture:

Africa itself.

• Its space.
• Its wildlife.
• Its landscapes.
• Its cultures.
• Its people.
• Its extraordinary sense of place.