Lula adopts cautious Brazil election campaign, sources say

Lula adopts cautious Brazil election campaign, sources say

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By Lisandra Paraguassu

BRASILIA, Sep 3 (Reuters) – Weeks before Brazil’s October election, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is running one of the country’s most cautious presidential campaigns in years as he tries to protect a razor-thin lead in the polls against right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, advisers close to his campaign told Reuters.

The result has been an unusually subdued campaign, the sources said, amid concerns about misinformation, foreign interference, and accidentally unleashing damaging political narratives.

“The ability to mislead voters today is even greater than it was in 2022, so it’s a real concern. We have to be much more careful about what we do and say,” one adviser said, asking not to be named because they were not authorized to speak publicly on the matter.

Polls show Lula holding a narrowing lead over Senator Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, with the latest polls showing a 1- to 3- percentage-point difference in the second round.

Inside the Planalto presidential palace in Brasilia, officials have been told to closely vet government actions to avoid accusations that state resources are being used for political purposes and to minimize missteps that opponents could exploit.

Ministers have been asked to delete social media posts, and state television has stopped broadcasting presidential events to avoid the risk of violating the Brazilian electoral law, the sources told Reuters. At the same time, official announcements and presidential events are being carefully reviewed to avoid misinterpretation, even if some officials see it as an overly cautious approach, they added.

“I think there’s a certain amount of exaggeration in this concern with violating the law. Previous administrations had absolutely no concern about this,” one source said. “The Brazilian legislation is clear that at some point the incumbent will be president and candidate at the same time.”

Yet all that caution was not enough to spare Lula from a social media storm last week. During an interview, he said he had never met a lobbyist who is currently under investigation in a corruption probe, only for Instagram photos showing the two together to quickly resurface and circulate online.

His campaign claimed he is often approached by people asking for photos, but he maintains he has no relation whatsoever with the lobbyist.

His rival, Bolsonaro, has dealt with his own social media controversy as well. This week, a Brazilian magazine revealed that he had received a payment of $1.6 million from Daniel Vorcaro, a disgraced former banker investigated for corruption in one of the largest fraud schemes uncovered in the Brazilian financial system. A previous payment of $24 million was revealed in May.

Lula’s campaign, however, sees a much more challenging environment with the rise of artificial intelligence, which makes the distortion of information harder to detect, and an administration in Washington that seems to be encouraging a shift to the right in Latin America.

“The U.S. government today has a clear willingness to interfere in elections in the region,” one person close to Lula told Reuters, saying that the Trump administration views Brazil as the next target in a wave of right-wing victories “that they initiated in the region.”

The State Department did not reply to a request for comment from Reuters, but the agency has previously rejected accusations of election interference by Brazil’s government. 

POLARIZATION

The reasons behind the subdued campaign, however, go beyond Lula’s caution. 

Analysts point to the polarization between Lula and the Bolsonaro camp as a factor contributing to voter fatigue, which ultimately translates into the general apathy seen on the streets.

“Both paths are familiar; they’ve already been tried,” explained Cila Schulman, CEO of the Ideia Institute, a polling and public opinion survey think tank.

Senator Bolsonaro’s campaign is also seeing a subdued public, one person who is close to the senator told Reuters, adding that their surveys show that voters across the political spectrum are tired of the political bickering, which is contributing to lower political engagement.

Brazil’s electoral court, which oversees elections, has also forbidden platforms from showing content from candidates to users who do not follow them, adding to the challenge of reaching voters.

It’s part of the reason why engagement in each campaign is confined to echo chambers, said Luis Fakhouri, director of strategy at Palver, a data intelligence firm that monitors social media. That, he added, could work in favor of Lula and Senator Bolsonaro, the two candidates leading the race.

“For Lula and Flavio’s campaigns, if there’s not much action, it is good for them. They’re firmly in the lead, they don’t need to rock the boat. The minor candidates are the ones that should try to heat up their campaigns,” said Fakhouri.

(Reporting by Lisandra Paraguassu in Brasilia; Additional reporting Ricardo Brito; Editing by Manuela Andreoni and Aurora Ellis)