ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 9, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Russian milbloggers continue to acknowledge Ukrainian counterattacks near Lyman and are criticizing the pervasive culture of lying within the Russian military.
• The Kremlin is conducting increasingly expansionary fiscal policy amid high war spending, which stifles Russian economic growth and forces Russian authorities to sacrifice non-war related spending, likely at the expense of citizens’ wellbeing.
• Russia may be attempting to establish a rough analogue to Ukraine’s Brave1 defense platform in order to support decentralized procurement for good and limited defense articles that would bolster Russian air defense of industrial infrastructure.
• Russian forces have reportedly suffered over 1.5 million personnel casualties thus far in the war.
• Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces advanced on September 9.
• Ukrainian forces struck multiple military targets along the Black Sea coast of Krasnodar Krai on the night of September 8-9, in part to reduce Russia’s cruise missile strike capabilities. Russia launched an unspecified number of Iskander-M ballistic missiles and S8000 Banderol-type loitering munitions and 196 drones against Ukraine overnight.

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