Is Bolivia becoming a battleground for Brazil’s drug gangs?
Since late July, a string of killings in Bolivia’s Santa Cruz, Pando, and Beni departments bordering with Brazil has left at least 16 people dead, raising alarm bells that the dispute for the control of drug trafficking routes between to Brazil’s First Capital Command (PCC) and Red Command (CV) may be spilling over into Bolivia.
Julia Franciotti, South America Research Manager at ACLED, said:
“The surge in violence in Bolivia’s departments bordering with Brazil points to growing competition between Brazilian criminal groups spilling across the border, with direct attacks and retaliation on Bolivian territory.
“The geography matters: violence is clustering along key border and trafficking corridors, including San Matías and San Ignacio de Velasco. These areas have seen targeted killings, clashes between suspected PCC and CV members, attacks on police, and the killing of farm workers.
“The concentration of incidents over a matter of weeks marks a clear escalation in violence. It remains to be seen whether this is a temporary flare up between rival groups or the start of a more violent pattern of organized crime in Bolivia.
“One factor may be growing pressure on criminal groups across the border in Brazil. In 2026, ACLED records over 170 clashes between security forces and gangs in Brazil’s bordering states of Acre, Rondônia, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, as of 21 August (see map below) – the highest number since ACLED began coverage of the region in 2018.
“Meanwhile, Bolivia remains an important source and transit point for cocaine, giving groups like the PCC and CV easier access to cocaine supplies and routes into Brazil, while also offering a place where their leaders can stay away from Brazilian authorities. While Paraguay was once the main hideout, many groups have now shifted to Bolivia, likely because it is easier to bribe authorities and obtain documents.
“At the same time, the change in Bolivia’s government and its closer cooperation with Brazil are putting more pressure on criminal networks there, which is making some trafficking routes harder to use. This is pushing groups to adapt their operations, but it is also making the remaining routes more valuable and intensifying competition between criminal groups to control them. The security deterioration has prompted the Bolivian and Brazilian governments to launch the “Fronteras Seguras” plan, which includes more police along the border, joint operations, and intelligence sharing.
“This comes as presidents Rodrigo Paz and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva are also working to strengthen economic ties, including through the proposed Guayaramerín-Guajará-Mirim bridge construction. Despite their different political views, the two governments have taken a pragmatic approach, cooperating on security, trade, energy, and infrastructure. However, porous crossings and limited border controls facilitate the movement of people and illicit goods between the two countries.
“Any initiative to boost commerce such as the proposed construction of the binational bridge illustrates why connectivity cannot be considered separately from security. Criminal groups already exploit the region’s transport networks and weak border controls, and greater movement could create new opportunities for them if state capacity does not keep pace.”