Iraq petitions OPEC+ for 6M bpd baseline, citing $400B rebuilding costs
Baghdad (IraqiNews.com) — Iraq is actively pushing for a substantial increase in its oil production ceiling within the OPEC+ alliance, formally demanding that its baseline capacity be set at 6 million barrels per day. According to a Bloomberg report reviewed by IraqiNews.com, this ambitious target marks a sharp divergence from Baghdad’s current alliance-mandated ceiling of 4.431 million barrels per day in effect for September and October, reflecting the country’s intent to substantially widen its export footprint on the global stage.
The federal government has grounded this demand in deep-seated economic and geopolitical grievances, arguing that an upward adjustment is crucial to repairing national finances. Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi previously raised the issue directly during his official visit to Washington in talks with U.S. President Donald Trump, justifying Baghdad’s stance by pointing to the staggering burden of post-ISIS reconstruction costs, which have surpassed $400 billion.
Building on this narrative, the Ministry of Oil maintains that Iraq’s petroleum infrastructure endured more than four decades of devastating wars, sanctions, and underinvestment, entitling the nation to a fair quota that honors its historic standing as OPEC’s second-largest producer and shores up a federal budget nearly entirely dependent on crude receipts.
The resolution of this bid now hinges on an intricate technical audit amid fraught regional conditions. OPEC+ has enlisted an independent technical consultant to assess the maximum sustainable production capacity of every member state, with the final assessment expected by the end of September ahead of formal ministerial ratification in November.
However, external data paints a more cautious picture: the International Energy Agency estimates Iraq’s actual sustainable capacity at roughly 4.9 million barrels per day, casting doubt on whether the alliance will approve the full 6-million-barrel request. Adding to the immediate operational strain, Iraq’s actual output in August languished at just 2.98 million barrels per day, constrained by escalating maritime security friction that snarled tanker transit through the vital Strait of Hormuz.
In the face of these headwinds, Iraqi authorities have moved swiftly to tamp down speculation regarding an exit from the alliance, dismissing rumors that Baghdad might mirror the United Arab Emirates’ earlier departure from OPEC+. The Ministry of Oil firmly denied any intention to leave, stressing that member nations maintain a deep appreciation for Iraq’s unique domestic challenges, and expressing confidence that constructive negotiations will ultimately yield a balanced settlement that accommodates the rehabilitation and revival of the nation’s energy sector.