Iraq militias start partial disarmament amid US pressure
Iranian-backed militias in Iraq have signaled that they may break away from the government-backed Popular Mobilization Forces and turn over some of their weapons to the state. There are many questions about whether this will actually happen or whether the militias are merely going to do some kind of formal change in “definitions” about their status and weapons, while keeping the guns and not changing their behavior.
First, some details about the militias. The Iranian-backed militias grew in size following the ISIS attack on Iraq in 2014. A fatwa from Iraq’s Shi’ite cleric Ayatollah Ali Sistani encouraged young men to join a “popular mobilization” against ISIS. More than 100,000 people answered the call. They ended up organizing under a large number of militias into dozens of “brigades” of the Popular Mobilization Forces.
There are believed to be up to 74 armed groups in Iraq that emerged due to the war against ISIS. ISIS was largely defeated by 2017 in Mosul in northern Iraq. Iraq then formalized the PMF as a state paramilitary. This essentially turned the PMF into an Iraqi version of the IRGC. “After achieving victory over ISIS, the competent authorities were supposed to dissolve these factions and return their members to society or integrate the qualified ones into official institutions,” an expert told UAE’s Al-Ain media on June 3.
Many of the most powerful armed groups within the PMF are linked to Iran and are also designated as terrorists by the US. This includes Kataib Hezbollah, Asaib Ahl al-Haq, and others. Badr, the largest group, is not a designated terrorist organization. Over the last few months, since Iraq chose a new prime minister named Ali al-Zaidi, there has been pressure from the US for him to rein in the militias. The militias carried out hundreds of attacks during the Iran conflict after the US and Israeli strikes on February 28. They attacked US diplomatic facilities and also the Kurdistan Region of northern Iraq.
Militias bowing to US pressure?
Now things are changing in Iraq. Muqtada al-Sadr, a Shi’ite cleric, has said his armed group, Saraya al Salam, will place itself under state control. This has led to a tide of comments from the other groups. Iraqi factions are saying they may sever ties with the Popular Mobilization Forces. However, Al-Ain media in the UAE wonders if this is “an Iranian maneuver or a capitulation to American pressure?” The report notes that “Iraqi factions announce they are severing ties with pro-Tehran militias in a move that sparks controversy over whether the step is an Iranian maneuver or a capitulation to American pressure.”
An Iraqi expert, speaking to Al-Ain News, affirms that “the existence of armed groups possessing heavy weapons, missiles, and independent military capabilities is contrary to the Iraqi constitution,” noting that “Iran has moved towards strengthening these factions and supporting them militarily and logistically, as well as involving some of them in multiple regional conflicts, which must end.” He explained that “the main challenge is how to impose the authority of the state and confine weapons to official institutions, while avoiding sliding into a widespread internal conflict
On Tuesday, Imam Ali Brigades and Asaib Ahl al-Haq, “announced the commencement of procedures to disengage from the Popular Mobilization Forces and confine weapons to the hands of the state,” Al-Ain noted. This also came after a meeting of the Shi’ite Coordination Framework. Many of the armed militias also have a political side in parliament. This is similar to the Hezbollah model in Lebanon. Iran’s IRGC has sought to recreate itself in Iraq via the PMF and use the militias in a similar role to Hezbollah.
An Iraqi expert told Al-Ain “there are factions that have responded or are showing a willingness to respond to this, while there are other factions that do not practically recognize the authority of the state or its priority over their political and ideological references.” Iran “has moved towards strengthening these factions and supporting them militarily and logistically, by establishing bases and training centers, and developing capabilities related to missiles, drones, and heavy and light weapons, as well as involving some of them in multiple regional conflicts, which is contrary to the Iraqi constitution, especially Article Nine, which prohibits the formation of any armed forces outside the framework of the Iraqi armed forces,” according to the expert’s comments to Al-Ain media.
What else is happening in Iraq?
What else is happening in Iraq as this shift takes place? The US is pressuring Iraq to end threats to other countries. This is a hint to the militias because the US Charge d’affairs Joshua Harris has said that he hopes Iraq can end threats emanating from Iraqi territory. Newly appointed US Special Envoy to Iraq and Syria Tom Barrack, who previously held only the Syria portfolio, has also praised Iraq’s prime minister for trying to bring arms under state control.
Shafaq News noted, “Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has proposed a plan to the United States that would link the expansion of US-led service and investment projects in Iraq to efforts to restrict weapons to state control and facilitate the disarmament of armed factions, a political source told Shafaq News on Tuesday.”
Kataib al-Imam Ali, an Iran-aligned Iraqi armed militia which operates under what it calls “the Islamic Resistance in Iraq,” announced on Tuesday that it would sever its organizational ties with the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) and begin procedures to place weapons under state control. The Islamic Resistance is a number of groups linked to Iran that have carried out attacks on the US and Israel.
Meanwhile, Shi’ite cleric and politician Ammar al-Hakim, head of the al-Hikma Movement, announced his support for consolidating weapons authority in state hands.
The Imam Ali Brigades announced their disassociation from the Popular Mobilization Forces, while confirming the commencement of procedures to “monopolize weapons” in the hands of the state. It was not clear if they would hand over weapons or merely leave the PMF. The decision by the brigades came hours after Asaib Ahl al-Haq, another militia, also announced that it would begin implementing procedures to disengage from the Popular Mobilization Forces.
It is not clear what all the other major armed groups will do. Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, which is a designated terrorist group by the US, has opposed the government’s initiative. Kata’ib Hezbollah, also a designated terrorist group, appeared to welcome efforts by armed factions to hand over their weapons to the Iraqi state, while offering to assume responsibility for and even purchase advanced systems, Rudaw media noted. It further noted that “the Islamic Resistance in Iraq emerged in the immediate aftermath of the outbreak of the Gaza war in October 2023, with its core overlap within the PMF including Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, Kata’ib Hezbollah, Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, and Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada armed groups.”
Iraq is clearly at a turning point. It remains to be seen if Iraq will actually collect the weapons and whether the groups will disarm or merely change their official status, but keep the guns and keep terrorizing Iraq and the region.