Iran’s attacks on Jordan show how the kingdom has become frontline state

Tuesday night was not the first time Iran has targeted Jordan and claimed it was striking at US bases there; however, the large number of missiles launched by Tehran indicates that Iran is escalating

Iran targeted Jordan on Tuesday night, with Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) claiming it had “targeted facilities used for the maintenance, preparation and deployment of US F-35, F-16 and F-15 fighter jets at the al-Azraq airbase in Jordan.”

This is not the first time Iran has targeted Jordan and claimed it was striking at US bases there; however, the large number of missiles launched by Tehran indicates that Iran is escalating.

According to Jordanian authorities, “the kingdom came under a missile attack from Iranian territory over the past few hours, the spokesperson for the Jordan Armed Forces (JAF) – Arab Army stated on Wednesday.

Petra News in Amman said that “The spokesperson explained that Jordanian air defense systems engaged 20 ballistic missiles fired toward Jordanian territory, successfully intercepting and destroying 18 of them. Two missiles fell in unpopulated areas.”

Jordan conducted a field assessment and found that there were no casualties. Jordan said it dealt with the threat “in accordance with established operational procedures to protect the kingdom’s airspace and ensure public safety. Continuous monitoring, tracking, and evaluation remain underway.”

Iran displays ability to reach US forces through attacks on Jordan

Iran has targeted Jordan in the past in order to show that it can strike at US forces even when the US moves assets further away from Iran. This comes in the context of reports that suggest the US is considering reducing its presence at some of the bases it has maintained in the Gulf. The US has had key bases in the Gulf for decades. This is in some ways a legacy of the 1991 Gulf War.

The US had to move large numbers of troops and warplanes, as well as naval ships, to the region in that war. Keeping them in the Gulf made sense. As such, the US established key bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE. The US also moved troops from Saudi Arabia, where they had been deployed during the war, to the new bases that were constructed in the smaller Gulf states.

For decades, this was the norm. US Central Command was anchored at these bases. The states were peaceful, and many of these countries became economically successful, expanding what had been relatively small cities exponentially, as foreign workers flocked to places like Dubai and Doha. The US presence therefore was part of a pattern of success and peace in the Gulf.

The Iran war has changed all of this. With Iran’s attacks on the Gulf, particularly targeting US bases, it has become clear that the Gulf may be vulnerable. Even if almost all the Iranian attacks are intercepted, a few successful hits can be catastrophic. This has led to thoughts about moving some US military assets in Central Command further away from Iran.

For Tehran, this may be seen as a success. It can say it has pushed the US out of the region. Meanwhile, countries like Jordan are now the frontline. Jordan is a frontline in part because the US is also leaving Iraq. US forces are leaving Iraq as part of a deal to wrap up the US role there that began in 2014 when Baghdad invited the US to help fight ISIS. The US had already left Iraq in 2011, after having invaded the country in 2003.

With the role in Iraq ending, Jordan is the only country between Israel and Iran, in a sense. Iraq is deeply influenced by Iranian-backed militias in the country. Those militias are sometimes deployed in Western Iraq’s Anbar province. As such, Iran has easy access to many areas in Iraq. The main area Iran doesn’t have access to in Iraq is the autonomous Kurdistan Region. However, Iran has attacked the Kurdistan Region with around 1,000 drones and missiles since February. This shows how Iran has systematically expanded the war to Iraq, the Gulf, and Jordan.

Iran may be sending message to Israel through Jordan strikes

Iran’s attacks on Jordan overnight may also have been a message to Israel. The attacks have been seen from Israel in the past. As such, Iran is showing that it is not defeated and that it still has a dangerous ballistic missile arsenal.

Jordanian authorities said that “specialized teams have begun securing the locations where debris and shrapnel fell, taking all necessary precautions to verify the safety of surrounding areas.” The Jordanian Armed Forces “urged citizens to refrain from approaching, touching, or moving any unidentified objects, fragments, or debris, calling on the public to report any findings immediately to competent authorities to ensure safety.” Jordan also warned people not to spread rumots.

“JAF affirmed that its surveillance, early warning, and air defense systems maintain the highest state of readiness to address any potential threats, with units deployed around the clock to protect the kingdom’s security and sovereign airspace. Official channels will release further updates as developments warrant,” Petra News noted.

Meanwhile, the IRGC said that “the attack was carried out with solid- and liquid-fueled ballistic missiles.” Liquid-fueled missiles take longer to prepare than solid-fueled missiles. Iran carefully planned this attack. Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters, which runs Iran’s military operations, added that “the US military has threatened to target three Iranian tankers.” Iran says it will respond to any attacks.

The IRGC also issued a warning to tankers in Kuwait and Bahrain. Iran is showing it will continue attacks in the Gulf. Iran is demanding that tankers in Kuwait and Bahrain be evacuated. It appears Iran is preparing to now try to go tit-for-tat with the US in terms of sinking and targeting ships. Iran argues that Bahrain and Kuwait are linked to the US because they host US troops. This is part of Iran’s attempt to get the US to withdraw from these countries.

US Central Command said overnight that it had “destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers, [on September 8]…after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targeted a US Navy warship with ballistic missiles twice over the past two days. The US warship successfully evaded the attempted Iranian attacks and continued to patrol regional waters. No American personnel were harmed.”