Increasing drone attacks on Zawiya risk triggering an oil shutdown and wider conflict in western Libya
Drone attacks have increased amid heightened power struggles
On 11 August, Libya’s state-owned National Oil Corporation (NOC) reported that explosive-laden drones struck two diesel storage tanks at Libya’s largest operating oil refinery at the Zawiya oil complex in the coastal city of Zawiya, about 47 kilometers west of the capital, Tripoli (see visual below). The incidents mark the latest in a series of drone attacks recorded in Zawiya over four consecutive days, following an FPV drone attack that punctured a tank containing unprocessed naphtha on 8 August, a strike on a water desalination plant the following day, and a separate incident in which a tank holding some 4.5 million liters of gasoline was hit on 10 August.
Although no one has claimed responsibility for the attacks and Libyan authorities have not reported any fatalities, ACLED data show that these attacks constitute an unprecedented string of drone strikes in Zawiya (see map below).
They also come amid heightened tensions between rival militias in the city, whose influence extends beyond Zawiya’s borders. At the center of these local power struggles is Mohamed Bahroun and the armed groups under his command on one side, and several rival factions on the other, including Othman al-Lahab’s al-Silaa Brigade and al-Nasr Brigade, as well as the Petroleum Facilities Guard, led by Mohamed Kashlaf.
So far in 2026, ACLED records over 30 armed clashes in Zawiya, most of them brief and triggered by persistent disputes over territorial control, the illicit economy (including fuel smuggling), and tit-for-tat attacks. Some of the most intense clashes, including one on 4 August between Bahroun’s and Lahab’s forces, and another on 8 May between Bahroun’s and Kashlaf’s forces, extended to areas around the oil refinery and already made use of drones.
Outlook: Latest strikes heighten the risk of a halt in oil refinery operations and an offensive by state-aligned forces
Zawiya’s high levels of internal tension, the unprecedented scale of these latest attacks, and the national importance of the city’s oil facilities all increase the likelihood of further escalation in the immediate term. This could include an attempt by forces more closely aligned with the Tripoli-based government to launch an offensive in the city to bring it under tighter control — a move that would likely spill over beyond Zawiya.
The NOC’s board of directors has already declared a state of maximum alert and warned that, if the attacks continue, it will be forced to declare force majeure and halt operations at the refinery.
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