How different regions will be affected by El Niño rains in Uganda

Uganda is expected to receive near-normal to above-normal rainfall during the September-December season, with the intensity, timing and duration of the rains varying across regions as the El Niño weather phenomenon intensifies.

The Ministry of Water and Environment says most parts of the country will receive about 25 per cent more rainfall than the long-term average, with some areas expected to continue receiving rains into January 2027.

Speaking to journalists at the Uganda Media Centre on Monday, the ministry’s Permanent Secretary, Mr Alfred Okot Okidi, said the entire country would be affected, although the intensity of the rains would differ.

“Most parts of the country are expected to receive near-normal to above-normal rainfall, which is the near-average to above-average rainfall over the last 30 years, which will be almost 25 percent more rainfall than that average,” he said.

“The entire country is going to be affected; however, the intensity will vary.”

The forecast shows that most areas currently experiencing dry or intermittent rainfall are expected to receive more consistent rains from mid-to-late September, with the season generally peaking between October and November.

In the Southwestern Highlands, covering Kabale, Kisoro, Rukungiri, Ntungamo, Kanungu, Rukiga, Rubanda, Bushenyi, Rubirizi, Mitooma, Buhweju, Sheema and Rwampara, stable rains are expected from mid-to-late September and will peak between October and November.

The Southwestern Lowlands, including Isingiro, Mbarara, Ibanda, Kiruhura and Kazo, are expected to remain largely dry until mid-to-late September before steady rains begin. The peak is forecast between late October and mid-November, with rains potentially extending into January 2027.

In the Rwenzori region, comprising Kasese, Bundibugyo, Ntoroko, Kabarole and Bunyangabu, isolated rainfall is expected until mid-to-late September before steady rains set in and peak between late October and November. The rains could also continue into January.

The three western zones are forecast to receive near-normal to above-normal rainfall.

Central and Lake Victoria region

The Central Western region, covering Masindi, Buliisa, Hoima, Kikuube, Kakumiro, Kyenjojo, Kyegegwa, Kamwenge, Kitagwenda, Kagadi and Kibaale, is expected to receive steady rains from mid-to-late September, peaking in late October and November.

In the western parts of the Central region, including Nakasongola, Luwero, Kyankwanzi, Kasanda, Nakaseke, Kiboga, Mubende, Sembabule, Lyantonde and Rakai, rains are expected to begin around mid-to-late September and peak in October and November.

Both areas are forecast to receive above-normal rainfall, with the rains potentially extending into January.

The Central and western Lake Victoria region, covering Kalangala, Kampala, Wakiso, Masaka, Kyotera, Lwengo, Mpigi, Butambala, Kalungu, Bukomansimbi, Gomba and Mityana, is also expected to receive above-normal rainfall.

The ministry says dry conditions in the area are likely to persist until mid-to-late September before steady rains set in. The peak is expected between mid-October and mid-November, with a high likelihood of rains continuing into January.

In the eastern parts of the Central region, including Mukono, Buikwe, Kayunga and Buvuma, steady rains are expected from mid-to-late September, peaking between October and November and potentially continuing into January.

The Eastern region, covering Jinja, Bugiri, Busia, Mayuge, Namayingo and Tororo, is expected to receive steady rains from mid-to-late September, peaking between October and November. The rains could continue into January, with above-normal rainfall forecast.

The Southeastern region, comprising Kamuli, Iganga, Bugweri, Luuka, Namutumba, Buyende, Kaliro and Butaleja, is expected to receive steady rains from late September. The peak is forecast between late October and November, with rains potentially continuing into January.

A similar above-normal rainfall outlook applies to the eastern parts of the Kyoga region, including Pallisa, Butebo, Budaka, Kibuku, Bukedea, Kumi, Kalaki, Kaberamaido and Soroti.

The Mountain Elgon region, covering Mbale, Sironko, Bulambuli, Manafwa, Bududa, Namisindwa, Kapchorwa, Kween and Bukwo, is expected to receive occasional rains until mid-to-late September before steady rainfall becomes established.

The rains are expected to peak between mid-October and mid-November and end in late December, with above-normal rainfall forecast.

Northeast and northern Uganda

The northeastern region, covering Amuria, Kapelebyong, Katakwi, Moroto, Kotido, Nakapiripirit, Nabilatuk, Abim, Napak, Amudat, Karenga and Kaabong, is expected to receive comparatively less rainfall than most other parts of the country.

The region is currently largely dry, with only isolated rainfall in some areas. Consistent rains are expected after late September, peaking between mid-October and mid-November before ending around late December.

Overall, the ministry forecasts near-normal to slightly above-normal rainfall in the region.

In West Nile, covering Zombo, Nebbi, Pakwach, Madi-Okollo, Arua, Koboko, Terego, Maracha, Moyo, Yumbe, Obongi and Adjumani, occasional rains are expected to continue until mid-to-late September before steady rainfall sets in.

The rains are expected to peak between mid-October and November and decline by late December. Above-normal rainfall is forecast.

The northern region is similarly expected to receive above-normal rainfall, with steady rains establishing from mid-to-late September, peaking between mid-October and November and ending around late December.

What is driving the forecast?

The ministry attributed the varying rainfall patterns to several climate drivers, including El Niño, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).

Mr Okidi said the established El Niño episode is expected to intensify during the season, while the IOD is forecast to shift from its current neutral phase to a positive phase around October.

The combination is expected to enhance rainfall over most parts of Uganda.

However, the MJO is expected to strengthen into a dry phase over the next one to two weeks, which could suppress rainfall in September before more consistent rains become established.

The MJO refers to the eastward movement of clouds and rainfall along the equator.

Mr Okidi said the forecast should guide planning in agriculture, health, water resources, transport and disaster preparedness.

“The forecast should guide planning in agriculture, health, water resources, transport, disaster preparedness and other climate-sensitive sectors to mitigate risks,” he said.

Ministry officials are expected to move into different regions with other government agencies to provide information on the expected impacts and preparedness measures.

Flood and landslide risks

The ministry had earlier warned that the El Niño event could increase the risk of flooding, landslides, infrastructure damage, disease outbreaks and disruption of livelihoods.

Flood-prone lowlands, urban centres with inadequate drainage, river catchments, wetlands and mountainous areas were identified as particularly vulnerable.

The varying forecast means that while increased rainfall could improve water availability and benefit agriculture in some areas, communities in vulnerable locations may face flooding, landslides, soil erosion and damage to infrastructure if preparedness measures are not strengthened.