Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in Liberia – An Assessment of Central Bank Policy Effectiveness (2018-2023) – Insurance News
Source: The Liberian Investigator
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ABSTRACT
Despite
This study assessed the effectiveness of CBL policy in shaping the relationship between FDI and economic growth in
The study found that CBL policy, particularly its progressive easing of the Monetary Policy Rate and reserve requirement ratios from 2021 onward, was moderately but not comprehensively effective, its influence bounded by structural constraints – including the dominance of extractive-sector FDI, financial-system dollarization, and limited regulatory transparency – that lay largely beyond the Bank’s control. Practitioners rated the Monetary Policy Rate the most effective instrument (mean 3.80 on a five-point scale), followed by foreign exchange interventions (3.56) and reserve requirement ratios (3.44), with overall CBL policy effectiveness rated at 3.60.
The study recommends that the CBL institutionalize ongoing monitoring of the pass-through of its policy instruments to FDI and growth outcomes, deepen coordination with the
Keywords:
Introduction
Foreign direct investment has long been regarded by policymakers and development economists as a principal channel through which capital-scarce, low-income economies such as
The
Despite this high FDI intensity,
Within this environment, the specific channels through which CBL policy instruments shape the relationship between FDI inflows and GDP growth had not been systematically assessed for the 2018-2023 period. Existing studies had tended either to model the FDI-growth relationship in isolation, without directly incorporating CBL policy variables, or to describe CBL policy actions in narrative terms without empirically linking those actions to investment or growth outcomes. It was this gap that motivated the present study, whose purpose was to assess the effectiveness of
Literature Review
Theoretical Review
The study drew on three complementary theoretical strands. The neoclassical growth model of Solow (1956) held that capital accumulation, including capital supplied through FDI, raises output growth up to the point of diminishing returns, after which sustained growth depends on gains in total factor productivity; this framework anticipated a positive but diminishing short-run FDI-growth relationship, consistent with the positive short-run FDI coefficient of 0.922 percent reported for
FDI, Central
The empirical literature linking FDI to growth originated with Bornstein,
Comparable West African experience offers a useful benchmark.
Exchange Rate Management, Dollarization, and Extractive-Sector FDI
The literature on exchange rate stability and FDI attraction is extensive but not unambiguous: while some panel evidence finds a positive long-run association between exchange rate stability and FDI, other cross-country evidence finds that the more prevalent causal pattern runs from FDI to the exchange rate rather than the reverse, and that once inflation is accounted for, exchange rate dynamics contribute comparatively little independent explanatory power to FDI inflows. For
Methodology
The study adopted a quantitative research method, situated within a descriptive and correlational, ex-post facto research design. The descriptive component established the trends and patterns of FDI inflows, sectoral economic growth, and CBL policy instruments over the 2018-2023 period, while the correlational component examined the association between FDI, CBL policy effectiveness, and economic growth. The design incorporated two complementary data streams: a secondary time-series stream comprising annual observations of FDI inflows, sectoral GDP growth, the Monetary Policy Rate, reserve requirement ratios, and foreign exchange auction volumes for 2018-2023, compiled from the
The target population comprised 500 individuals drawn from institutions directly involved in
Two instruments were used. The first was a structured questionnaire, administered face-to-face to the 20 sampled respondents, comprising closed-ended items using a five-point Likert scale (from “strongly disagree” to “strongly agree”) to rate the extent to which the Monetary Policy Rate, reserve requirement ratios, and foreign exchange interventions had influenced FDI inflows and growth outcomes over 2018-2023. The second was a secondary data-extraction sheet used to compile published time-series data by year and variable, with discrepancies between sources (for example, between UNCTAD’s flow-based and
Discussion of Empirical Results
Trends and Patterns of FDI Inflows into
FDI inflows into
Table 1: Foreign Direct Investment Inflows into
Source: UNCTAD World Investment Report (2023); World Bank World Development Indicators (2025); CBL Monthly Economic Review (2023).
The extractive sector dominated FDI throughout the period, averaging 74.5 percent of total inflows and peaking at 82.1 percent in 2022, consistent with mining-related FDI rising from roughly
Trajectory of Economic Growth in
Table 2:
Source: Macrotrends (2025); World Bank World Development Indicators (2025); IMF Article IV Reports (2020-2024); CBL Annual Reports (2018-2023); African Development Bank Country Focus Reports (2023-2025).
Services remained the largest sector throughout, contributing between 45.7 and 48.5 percent of GDP. Agriculture, which employs the largest share of the workforce, declined steadily from 34.2 to 31.2 percent of GDP. Industry’s share rose most sharply from 2020 onward, driven almost entirely by mining, whose GDP contribution climbed from 8.4 to 13.8 percent – a gain of 5.4 percentage points that tracks closely with the rise in mining-related FDI. Manufacturing, by contrast, never rose above 4.2 percent of GDP, indicating that economic diversification remained largely out of reach. Mining was also the most volatile sector by growth rate, contracting by 8.2 percent in 2020 before expanding by 16.8 percent in 2021 and 14.2 percent in 2022, swings that fed through to, and amplified, total GDP growth and underscored
CBL Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy Instruments (2018-2023)
The Monetary Policy Rate, the CBL’s main signaling tool, held at 14.5-15.0 percent through 2018-2020, a contractionary stance consistent with the Bank’s price-stability mandate. From 2021 the CBL eased steadily, cutting the rate to 12.5 percent, then 10.0 percent, then 8.5 percent by 2023 – a cumulative reduction of 6.5 percentage points from its 2020 peak. This easing tracked the economy’s recovery from the pandemic and a fall in inflation from 16.4 percent in 2020 to 5.8 percent in 2023.
Table 3: CBL Monetary Policy Instruments, 2018-2023
Source: CBL Annual Reports (2018-2023); CBL Monthly Economic Review (2023); IMF Article IV Reports.
Reserve requirements followed the same downward path. The ratio on Liberian-dollar deposits fell from 15.0 percent in 2018-2019 to 10.0 percent in 2022-2023, while the ratio on US-dollar deposits fell from 10.0 to 7.0 percent over the same period, reflecting the CBL’s recognition of how dollarized
Practitioner Assessment of CBL Policy Effectiveness
Primary survey data were gathered from twenty purposively sampled respondents across five institutional categories – CBL staff,
Table 4: Respondents’ Assessment of CBL Policy Instrument Effectiveness (Mean Scores, 5-Point Likert Scale)
Source: Primary survey data (n = 20), 2026.
Across all five respondent categories, the Monetary Policy Rate was rated the most effective CBL instrument, followed by foreign exchange interventions and reserve requirement ratios. CBL staff rated every instrument most favorably, while independent analysts were consistently the most conservative in their scoring, a pattern that likely reflects analysts’ greater distance from, and more critical stance toward, the institution whose performance they were assessing. Overall CBL policy effectiveness scored a mean of 3.60, indicating a generally positive but qualified assessment among practitioners and observers of
This practitioner assessment is broadly, though not entirely, consistent with the wider empirical literature. Prior econometric evidence for
Several institutional and structural factors were found to constrain the translation of FDI into sustained growth largely independently of CBL policy narrowly defined.
Conclusion
This study assessed the effectiveness of
At the same time, the effectiveness of CBL policy was bounded by structural features of the Liberian economy that lie substantially beyond the Bank’s direct control – the dominance of extractive-sector FDI, the persistence of a de facto dollarized financial system, and the shallow depth of
Based on these findings, the study recommends that the
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