El Nino Phenomenon in Colombia Has Developed Faster than on Previous Occasions

The speed at which the El Nino phenomenon is taking shape this year has surprised experts, as it is breaking the usual margins of climate prediction.

Last June, the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (IDEAM) had already announced that the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), together with international climate models, were showing at that time a high subsurface heat content and the ocean-atmosphere coupling characteristic of the phenomenon, with a high probability of strengthening during the second half of 2026 and a possible persistence toward the end of this year and the beginning of 2027.

One of the most intense El Nino phenomena

According to the technical analyses at the time, there was a 96% probability that the conditions would persist during November and December 2026 and January 2027. In addition, the model consensus indicated a 63% probability that the event would reach a very strong intensity during that same period.

And it warned that, if this scenario materialized, one of the most intense El Nino phenomena recorded since 1950 could take shape, according to the indicators showing elevated surface and subsurface temperature anomalies in the region, consistent with the warm phase of ENSO.

“It has been an event that has developed faster than these phenomena typically evolve. This year the Pacific warmed more rapidly than on other occasions,” said Paola Andrea Arias Gomez, a researcher and professor at the Environmental School of the Faculty of Engineering of the University of Antioquia (UDEA), quoted in a statement from that institution.

She clarified that names seeking to represent the magnitude of the phenomenon this year, such as ‘super El Nino’ or ‘Godzilla El Nino,’ are the way the media refer to it, “but among specialized organizations there are categories that are weak El Nino, moderate El Nino, strong El Nino and very strong El Nino, and what those scientific entities are saying at this moment is that there is an 81% probability that a phenomenon in this last category will occur.”

The current situation in the Pacific can also be seen as “an additional warming signal, which is not only the warming that occurs during El Nino years, but is a signal that the temperature has increased over the last decades. And that is what we call global warming,” added the UDEA scientist in the same document, who is also a member of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The vulnerability comes from many sides

According to Arias Gomez, the combination of El Nino with increased temperatures from other causes has already been recorded with effects across the entire Earth. “2024 is the warmest year so far on a planetary scale, since records have been kept, and in part this had to do with the Pacific Ocean. Having warmed between 2023-24, it helped the planet warm even more (…) and regardless of what happens this year with El Nino, 2027 is expected to be the warmest year in the last millennia,” she warned.

The professor also commented on measures by the previous government of Gustavo Petro, such as the declaration of a national disaster in order to expedite budget execution in the event of any contingency, and the decision by the National Unit for Disaster Risk Management (UNGRD) to issue Circular 028 of 2026, through which mayors and governors were ordered to immediately activate contingency plans against forest fires and shortages of drinking water.

For Arias Gomez, although these government responses were taken with apparent advance notice, they actually show that the country reacts to the emergency instead of preparing sufficiently in advance.

“We know that there are vulnerabilities in populations and ecosystems, but if we had stronger institutions, which worked more on prevention, surely people and the different environments would not be so impacted by an event like this,” she said.

She also stressed that “the vulnerability of our countries comes from many sides […], but there is something very significant, and that is institutional weakness. Proof of this is that there are state agencies and institutes that operate with very limited resources and capacities.”