Egypt warns Ethiopia over Nile flow control, additional dams

ADDIS ABABA – Egypt warned Ethiopia on Sunday that it would not accept any attempt to control the flow of the Nile to downstream countries, after Ethiopian officials indicated that Addis Ababa could build additional dams on the river.

An Egyptian official, quoted by state news agency MENA, said Cairo had “several means at its disposal” to defend its interests and “will not accept or allow any party to control the Nile’s flow to downstream countries.”

The warning followed remarks attributed to Ethiopian Water and Energy Minister Habtamu Itefa that Ethiopia would control Nile flows towards Egypt and Sudan and was determined to build more dams as part of its right to use its water resources for development.

The comments threaten to widen a 15-year dispute that has centred on Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which Addis Ababa inaugurated about a year ago.

Egypt regards the Nile as a vital national-security issue and fears that Ethiopia’s expanding water infrastructure could give it increasing influence over the volume and timing of water reaching downstream countries.

Ethiopia says the GERD is designed to generate electricity and does not seek to deprive Egypt or Sudan of water. Addis Ababa argues that upstream countries have a sovereign right to develop their water resources and rejects what it regards as Cairo’s attempts to impose historic water rights on the Nile basin.

But the dispute is increasingly moving beyond the operation of one dam.

The prospect of additional Ethiopian dams has raised concern in Cairo that a network of water projects could give Ethiopia growing practical control over the Blue Nile, one of the river’s main tributaries.

For Egypt and Sudan, the issue is not only how much water flows downstream each year, but who determines the timing and volume of releases during periods of drought and flooding.

The Egyptian source described the reported Ethiopian position as a continuation of Addis Ababa’s unilateral approach and a violation of international law, warning against what he called an attempt to establish a monopoly over a shared international waterway.

Former Egyptian assistant foreign minister Salah Halima said Cairo had “several options” to defend its interests, including returning to the UN Security Council.

He said Egypt could initially seek action under Chapter 6 of the UN Charter, which provides for the peaceful settlement of disputes, and could potentially seek measures under Chapter 7 if the dispute were deemed a threat to international peace and security.

Ethiopia’s geographical position gives it a structural advantage in the dispute. The Blue Nile rises on Ethiopian territory, while Egypt lies downstream and depends heavily on the river for its water needs. Sudan, located directly downstream of the GERD, is also particularly exposed to changes in the river’s flow.

The imbalance has become more significant as Ethiopia expands its water infrastructure while Egypt and Sudan have failed to secure a binding agreement governing the management of the river.

Egypt has repeatedly said it does not oppose Ethiopia’s right to development but insists that any use of shared water resources must respect international law and avoid significant harm to downstream countries.

Cairo and Khartoum also reaffirmed earlier this year their rejection of unilateral measures in the eastern Nile basin and called for prior notification, consultation and co-ordinated management of shared water resources.

The latest dispute therefore points to a broader struggle over the future governance of the Nile.

The central question is no longer simply how the GERD should be operated, but whether the basin’s countries can establish binding rules governing an expanding network of dams before Ethiopia’s growing infrastructure gives it greater ability to shape the river’s flows.

For Egypt, the challenge is increasingly about preventing the GERD dispute from becoming a precedent for a much larger shift in control over the Nile.