De la Espriella Moves to Prevent Power Rationing as El Niño Intensifies

Colombian President Abelardo de la Espriella has launched a preemptive strategy to protect the country’s electricity supplies as a potentially very strong El Niño threatens to put pressure on reservoirs, rivers, and the national power system.

The government says it is acting before the climate phenomenon reaches its expected peak, rather than waiting for water levels and electricity reserves to fall far enough to force rationing.

The announcement comes as Colombia prepares for what the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (IDEAM) describes as an unusually intense El Niño. In its latest assessment, IDEAM said there is a 69% probability that the phenomenon will reach “very strong” intensity during October, November, and December 2026. It also estimates that El Niño conditions have more than a 90% probability of persisting into the first quarter of 2027.

De la Espriella’s plan to protect electricity supplies from El Niño

The most concrete measure announced so far is the Plan Energia YA, which was unveiled after the Commission for the Regulation of Energy and Gas (CREG) approved two mechanisms designed to reduce the risk of electricity shortages during the 2026-2027 dry season.

The first is an incentive system aimed at changing household consumption. Users who reduce their monthly electricity consumption by more than 10% compared with an individual target could receive a benefit on their bills. Those who consume more than 10% above their target could face an additional charge. Users in municipalities affected by the recent earthquake will be exempt from the measure.

The second measure is intended to ensure that Colombia has enough thermal generation available when hydroelectric production comes under pressure.

That is particularly important because drought can reduce river flows and reservoir levels, limiting the amount of electricity Colombia can generate from hydropower. The government says the mechanism will help guarantee the thermal generation needed during the summer while preserving water stored in reservoirs.

The strategy will pay particular attention to regions such as the Caribbean and Choco, which the government considers especially vulnerable to the effects of the dry season. It also aims to prevent electricity prices from rising sharply during a period of reduced hydroelectric generation.

What about water rationing?

Water is the other major concern. At the recent Bolivar Summit in Mompox, De la Espriella said his administration had instructed officials from the beginning of his presidency to protect national reserves of water, gas, and energy and strengthen the infrastructure required to withstand a decline in rainfall.

The president said the government would not wait for El Niño’s effects to hit the country before taking action. The administration’s stated objective is to preserve supplies and avoid a situation in which cities and regions are forced into emergency rationing.

However, unlike the electricity strategy, the government has not yet announced a nationwide water-rationing avoidance program with specific consumption targets comparable to the 10% electricity goal.

That distinction matters because the threat to water supplies will vary considerably across Colombia.

Why El Niño is a growing threat

IDEAM warns that reduced rainfall and higher temperatures could progressively lower river and stream flows and reservoir levels. That could affect drinking-water supplies, agriculture, and hydroelectric generation simultaneously.

The agency is therefore urging authorities to update water contingency plans, promote efficient water use and maintain monitoring and early-warning systems.

For De la Espriella, the immediate challenge is to prevent a chain reaction: Less rain means less water in reservoirs, which means less hydropower, greater dependence on thermal plants, and potentially higher electricity costs.

The government is betting that acting early — encouraging consumers to save electricity, protecting reservoir reserves and securing alternative generation — can prevent that scenario from becoming a nationwide crisis.

With El Niño expected to intensify through the end of 2026, the coming months will show whether the strategy can keep Colombia’s lights on and its water flowing without resorting to widespread rationing.