Cuba Seeks to Deter the US with Economic Reform: Can it Succeed? — Bloomsbury Intelligence and Security Institute (BISI)

Implications

Whether these measures will deter more pressure from the US is uncertain. Prospects for the implementation of economic liberalisation are mixed, with some sceptical analysts highlighting previous failed Cuban reform packages. Yet the expansive nature of the reforms, changed leadership, and current diplomatic and economic pressures make them likely to be enacted. Their timing suggests they are an appeasement response to current US diplomatic and economic pressures. Whether they will be as expansive as proposed is uncertain, but measures intended to appease the US the most, like allowing foreign direct investment, are highly likely to materialise tangibly. 

Use of US military forces to enact regime change in Cuba is unlikely. The costs of the Iran War, both to the US government (an estimated USD 132b) and to the U.S. people, who are facing higher energy and food prices, are likely to deter further military action by the Trump administration.

Unlike Venezuela, Cuba lacks a strong opposition movement or favourable actors in government that could produce a pro-US regime, further deterring intervention. Furthermore, the economic motivations of the Venezuelan intervention could be addressed by the proposed reform package, which would partially open the Cuban economy to US investors. Regime change is therefore highly unlikely. 

Whether the reforms will ease tensions between the US and Cuba is also uncertain. The muted response from the Trump Administration, and historic enmity between the two states, make a significant thawing in relations highly unlikely. Cuba’s strategic partnerships with Russia and China further contribute to continued tensions. Economic liberalisation, however, may lead to the establishment of a pragmatic relationship between the two, especially if the US is a significant beneficiary of access to Cuban industries and markets. Political tensions are almost certain to remain, but economic links may be able to ensure these do not amount to direct conflict.