Cocoa Price Slump Drags Down CEMAC Agricultural Export Earnings

International prices for agricultural commodities exported by Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) countries fell sharply in the first quarter of 2026, driven mainly by a steep decline in cocoa prices.

According to the Composite Commodity Price Index (ICCPB) published by the Bank of Central African States (BEAC), agricultural export prices dropped 21.8% between the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026. The decline follows a 14.5% drop recorded in the previous quarter. The index tracks export prices for Cameroon, Congo, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Chad, and the Central African Republic.

Cocoa Leads the Decline

BEAC data show that cocoa prices fell 24.6% quarter over quarter, making the commodity the main driver of the decline in agricultural export prices. Coffee prices also moved lower, although the drop was more limited at 4.5%. The central bank’s report does not provide specific reasons for the decline. However, commodity market analysts point to changing supply conditions in the global cocoa market.

The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) expects the market to return to a surplus during the 2025/2026 season, extending a recovery that began last year after three consecutive seasons of deficits. The anticipated increase in supply is expected to be supported by Ecuador, where rising production has fueled expectations of a shift in the global cocoa industry. The South American country could overtake Ghana as the world’s second-largest cocoa producer as early as this season.

Prospects of a better-supplied market have weighed on prices both on international exchanges and in producing countries.

The ICCPB tracks the prices of 20 commodities that account for about 90% of the value of exports from CEMAC countries. The basket covers five categories: energy products, metals and minerals, forestry products, agricultural commodities, and fishery products.

The index serves as a benchmark for monitoring price trends across the region’s major export commodities.

BRM