It’s that time of year. The draft order is set. The NBA Combine is complete. Now we get to spend the next month analyzing and misjudging a bunch of prospects that will ultimately end up landing on other teams. But it’s fun, and this might be the start of my favorite time of the year. So we start with a prospect that I’ve quickly become intrigued by, Baylor wing Cameron Carr.
Measurements
Height: 6’4.5″
Wingpsan: 7’0.75″
Standing reach: 8’8″
Standing vertical: 38″
Max vertical: 42.5″
Strengths
Outside shooting, athleticism, defensive potential
Carr’s appeal comes from his combination of elite athletic traits paired with high level outside shooting. He has limitless range and seemingly has limitless confidence to go with it. He is proficient shooting out of every possible look. He can spot up in the corner, come off screens, or pull up out of ball screens or in isolation, and his efficiency stays pretty consistent. He has very fluid mechanics and gets a lot of elevation on his jumper, especially on the move. Between the clear shooting talent he possesses and the confidence he has in that shot, this skill should translate to the NBA immediately. And to reinforce that talent, he only went out and dropped 30 points in the first scrimmage at the NBA Combine.
Carr complements that shooting touch with an ideal physical profile for a wing, other than his weight. He has an absurd wingspan ratio, with his arms spanning over seven feet across despite him standing at 6’4.” He tested with the second best standing and maximum vertical leaps at the combine, and that shows up in games as well. He gets off his feet quickly and his an effortless dunker. When he has speace to get downhill, he uses his vertical pop to get off acrobatic finishes around the rim, even if he can’t get all the way up for a dunk. He can also elevate in mid range spots coming off curls and he can get his shot off easily due to how high he gets on his release.
Those physical tools also give him upside as a defender. While he wasn’t as active on the perimeter as you’d probably like to see, he did find a way to make an impact as a shot blocker. His 1.4 blocks per 36 minutes is an elite number for a wing, and he blocks an inordinate number of jumpers. He needs to add bulk to become a truly impactful, versatile defender, but there’s a good foundation here. He’s also got a good motor, which you would think he could turn up when he’s shouldering less offensive burden at the next level.
Question Marks
Slight frame/strength, on ball defense, playmaking
The concerns with Carr mostly revolve around his relatively narrow frame. At the combine, he weighed in at just 185 pounds, which is very light for a nearly 6’5″ guard, especially one that is 21 years old and spent three years playing high major division one basketball. He’s a pretty narrowly built, lanky guy, so it’s very unlikely he’s going to be able to add a significant amount of good bulk going forward.
That lack of mass gives him some problems on both ends of the floor. Defensively, he can get bullied, especially if he gets out of position. He gets pushed off his spot relatively easily when guarding bigger players. On offense, his lack of strength and rather simple handle make if hard for him to get good looks in traffic, and he can get diverted off his path by relatively minor bumps and nudges. He was a good finisher in college, but he’ll likely have a harder time finishing at the rim in the NBA without a runway to use his athleticism to elevate over people.
Carr is more of a play finisher than play creator, and that’s probably what his long term role is going to be. He’s a little reckless with some shot selection, but that’s probably more a product of his role as the lead dog on the Baylor offense. Still, he didn’t generate a lot of assists or do a lot of advanced shot creation outside of getting to his pull-up jumper or attacking in a straight line. He has a very good skill set for a defined role, but there were some obvious missing elements when looking for someone that could be a high level offense initiator in the NBA.
Overview
Carr has some question marks that would make it hard to project him as a primary option, but this late in the first round, it’s probably unreasonable to expect a primary option. His skill set jibes perfectly with what NBA teams are looking for on the wings, especially if he can shore up some of his on ball defense. Uber athletic wings with outside shooting ability and a high motor are coveted by every team in the league. Few players have a more robust combination of those attributes, and the question marks surrounding Carr’s games will probably be mitigated by the role he’s asked to play. For the Hornets, he could find a place in the wing rotation as a shot maker and play finisher off the bench who makes an impact off the ball defensively. He’d be a fantastic pick with either of the Hornets first two rounders.
Highlights
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