Brazil’s Supreme Court scandal reshapes presidential race as Flavio Bolsonaro closes in on Lula

Laura Gamba

Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro has caught up with President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in the latest AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey, showing a statistical deadlock ahead of October’s presidential election as an escalating crisis involving Brazil’s Supreme Court reshapes the campaign.

The poll, released Thursday, shows the lawmaker, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, holding a narrow numerical edge at 46.4% to Lula’s 46.2% in a simulated second-round runoff. The result marks a dramatic reversal from late August, when Lula led 47.1% to 42.6%, a 4.5-percentage-point advantage.

The momentum shift coincides with an unprecedented, high-profile clash within the Supreme Federal Court (STF) that has provided the opposition with leverage to turn the election into a broader referendum on judicial overreach.

Tensions erupted publicly after Supreme Court Justice Andre Mendonca, appointed to the bench by former President Jair Bolsonaro, lifted judicial secrecy on Federal Police reports detailing private communications between Justice Alexandre de Moraes and Daniel Vorcaro, the former owner of Banco Master SA. The bank’s collapse lies at the center of a sweeping fraud investigation that has shaken confidence among the country’s political and financial elite.

The leaked messages appear to reveal close ties and undisclosed communications between Moraes and Vorcaro, giving weight to criticisms regarding improper connections between senior judges and financial interests.

Moraes, who was appointed by former President Michel Temer, gained prominence as the chief antagonist of Jair Bolsonaro due to his crackdowns on social media disinformation and his stewardship of the judicial proceedings that led to the former president’s conviction for attempting a coup d’état following his 2022 electoral defeat. Those high-profile prosecutions cemented a public perception among conservative voters that Moraes operated in close alignment with the Lula administration.

President Lula has actively sought to distance his government from the judicial rift. Calling for full transparency, he urged that the ongoing Banco Master investigations led by Mendonca be made completely public and asserted that any individual involved in wrongdoing must be held accountable “regardless of who they are or whom it might harm.”

Struggling with a sluggish domestic economy and persistent corruption allegations involving one of his sons, Lula’s approval rating dropped to 44%, the lowest level recorded by AtlasIntel since the polling firm began tracking the metric in early 2024.

Despite his sudden rise in the polls, Flavio Bolsonaro remains exposed to potential political fallout from the very same financial scandal. The 45-year-old senator previously suffered a nearly 7-point drop in voter support in May after revelations surfaced that he had solicited funds from Vorcaro prior to the banker’s arrest to finance a biographical documentary about his father.