Brazilian orange juice prices show signs of recovery

On Sep 9, 2026

Brazil’s orange juice market is showing early signs of price recovery as the 2026/27 citrus season progresses, although grower margins remain under pressure. RaboResearch expects prices could recover gradually later in 2026, supported by more stable demand and concerns over the potential impact of El Niño on future production.

Production across Brazil’s citrus belt is expected to reach close to 250 million boxes in 2026/27. According to Fundecitrus, the crop is forecast to be 13% lower than the previous season. RaboResearch notes that high temperatures during Q3 and Q4 could increase fruit drop, potentially resulting in a further downward revision to production.

Spot orange prices for processing increased from BRL 25/box in May to BRL 31/box in August, according to Cepea. Despite the increase, prices remain below production costs for many growers, which RaboResearch puts at BRL 31/box.

FCOJ futures in New York recovered to US$1.58/lb in late August, compared with the 2026 low of US$1.32/lb in July. In Europe, FCOJ is trading near US$2,800/ton, while NFC is close to US$950/ton. Juice stocks have returned close to normalized levels, but concerns remain over the effect a strong El Niño could have on the next crop.

Demand remains a factor in the price outlook. U.S. orange juice retail prices in the current crop year are 8.5% higher than in the previous crop year, while volumes are down by 6.4%. NFC prices increased by 10%, with volumes down by 3%, while reconstituted juice prices increased by 1.9% and volumes declined by 9.7%. Recent data indicate that prices are flattening and volumes are becoming more stable.

Looking ahead, August heat, extended dry periods, and above-average temperatures could affect flowering for the 2027/28 crop. Combined with low grower margins and reduced investment in crop management, RaboResearch expects production could decline in the next crop year.

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For more information:
Andrés Padilla
Rabobank
Tel: +55 11 5503 6936
Email: [email protected]
www.media.rabobank.com

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