Brazil Could Become Leading SAF Hub: IATA
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) used its 82nd Annual General Meeting in Rio de Janeiro to highlight Brazil’s potential to become a global sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production hub, citing its biomass resources, ethanol industry, and refining base as key drivers of aviation decarbonization. IATA said airlines will require around 500 million tonnes of SAF to achieve net-zero CO₂ emissions by 2050, placing significant pressure on global supply expansion. Brazil has one of the largest biomass feedstock potentials globally, estimated at 180 million tonnes by 2050, capable of producing around 60 million tonnes of SAF.
By 2030, sustainably sourced sugar-based ethanol, virgin oils, and waste oils could reach 18 million tonnes of feedstock, translating into roughly 12 million tonnes of SAF production potential. This is about five times the estimated global SAF output in 2026 of 2.4 million tonnes. The country has around 15 SAF projects under development, which could deliver about 2 million tonnes of capacity if completed.
Willie Walsh, Director General, IATA, said Brazil has the conditions to become a global SAF powerhouse, citing its clean electricity mix, feedstock availability, and biofuel expertise.
“Brazil has all the ingredients to be a global SAF powerhouse. It has one of the cleanest electricity mixes and abundant feedstock. As a major biofuel producer, it has infrastructure and experience. Brazil can lead aviation decarbonization, create jobs, reduce fossil fuel dependence, and grow the economy. With the right policy sequencing, Brazil can start this market,” he said.
IATA said Brazil’s ethanol production experience and refining base provide competitive advantages that could support scaling of HEFA and ethanol-to-jet pathways, as well as enable potential SAF exports. The association added that this industrial base could expand across agriculture, logistics, refining, and fuel production, supporting jobs and energy security.
The organization also said scaling SAF production in Brazil will require investment in infrastructure, conversion technologies, and logistics systems linking feedstock supply to production facilities. It stressed that policy incentives, financing mechanisms, and alignment with global sustainability standards will be necessary to unlock scale. IATA added that a book-and-claim system and SAF certificates under Brazil’s “Fuel of the Future” framework could support market development and align with CORSIA.
Marie Owens Thomsen, Senior Vice President for Sustainability and Chief Economist, IATA, said policy sequencing and alignment with global frameworks are essential for Brazil to achieve scale.
“Brazil has strong advantages in resources and experience that could place it at the center of SAF markets. The economic gains could be significant. Policies must follow the correct sequence to reach scale and reduce costs. Skipping supply chain development and moving directly to mandates will not work. Alignment with global standards such as CORSIA is necessary,” she said.
According to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), SAF, hydrogen, and electrification currently account for less than 1% of global aviation fuel use. The OECD International Transport Forum estimates that air freight represents less than 1% of global freight but generates emissions around 20 times higher per ton-kilometer than other transport modes.
IATA said these findings underscore the need for coordinated global policy to avoid overlapping measures that increase costs without delivering additional environmental benefits. It added that Brazil’s opportunity depends on timely investment, policy alignment, and the development of scalable production systems. Industry participants said Brazil could become a net SAF exporter if current projects are completed and policy support is sustained.
IATA also said European policy frameworks should ensure revenues from emissions trading systems are reinvested into aviation decarbonization rather than absorbed into general budgets. It argued that reinvestment is necessary to scale SAF production and support emerging technologies that are not yet commercially viable. The association added that overlapping regulatory measures can increase costs and reduce investment certainty for airlines operating international networks, stressing the need for alignment with global mechanisms such as CORSIA to ensure consistent emissions accounting.
Industry data shows SAF production reached 1.9 million tonnes in 2025, equal to about 0.6% of global jet fuel demand. It is projected to rise to 2.4 million tonnes in 2026, or 0.8% of demand. SAF costs remain two to five times higher than conventional jet fuel depending on region and incentives, while limited feedstock availability and technology maturity continue to constrain supply expansion.
Analysts said regions with lower-cost renewable electricity such as Brazil, India, the Middle East, and North Africa hold structural advantages for e-SAF production. However, investment has remained concentrated in higher-cost jurisdictions due to policy incentives. Industry participants said this mismatch between economics and policy signals has slowed final investment decisions in Europe and other advanced markets.