A closed maritime chokepoint has redirected buyers toward South America, turning Brazil’s offshore reserves into a strategic advantage with global consequences.
Brazil has significantly increased its oil production and exports amid the war between the United States and Iran, which has disrupted established supply routes. China, seeking alternatives to Middle Eastern oil, has become the largest buyer of Brazilian crude.
Based on data from CNN
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil was transported before the conflict, forced importers to look for alternative suppliers. Between February and May, China’s total crude oil imports fell by approximately 40%.
I previously called Brazil the winner of the trade wars, and now I would call it the winner of this real war as well.
– Catherine Rooney Vera, StoneX chief market strategist
In June, Brazil’s crude oil production reached a record 4.5 million barrels per day. That was 19% more than during the same period last year. Rising global prices and increased demand from China significantly boosted Brazil’s export revenues.
In the first half of the year, the value of Brazilian oil shipments to China exceeded $15.1 billion. The figure was more than double the result for the same period a year earlier.
After US and Israeli strikes on Iran, oil prices rose by approximately 30% to more than $90 per barrel.
Brazil strengthens its position in the global oil market
Brazilian Minister of Mines and Energy Alexandre Silveira said that instability and risks along key international routes had given the expansion of oil production particular strategic importance.
Brazil is positioning itself as a stable, secure, and predictable energy supplier.
– Alexandre Silveira
Brazil has significant reserves of so-called pre-salt oil, discovered off its coast in 2006. The deposits lie beneath a thick layer of salt, making extraction more difficult and costly. At the same time, technological advances and high prices have made the development of these fields more profitable.
According to the energy analytics platform Enverus, Brazil’s pre-salt oil production could rise to 4 million barrels per day by 2030. This creates the conditions for further export growth and strengthens the country’s role as an alternative supplier.
In August, the state-owned oil company Petrobras announced the discovery of a new offshore field in the Equatorial Margin area off the coast of Amapá state, near the mouth of the Amazon River.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva called the discovery “a passport to the country’s future.” He said Brazil could open the region to the global market if Donald Trump continues the war with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
Petrobras emphasized that the company’s production and exports do not depend on a single geopolitical event. Company representatives noted that Brazil has alternative oil transportation routes that do not pass through the conflict zone.
Petrobras has alternative routes outside the conflict zone. This ensures security and competitive prices for our operations while allowing us to remain profitable.
– Petrobras
The strengthening of Brazil’s oil exports is taking place alongside China’s efforts to diversify its purchases and the global economy’s attempts to reduce its dependence on unstable energy routes. In the long term, this situation could change the balance of influence in the global oil market.