World Cup gameday discussion: Who’s advancing? Who’s out? What’s next? Here are the stakes ahead of the final day of group play

On Sep 6, 2026

The 2026 FIBA World Cup completes group play on Monday, Sept. 7, with all 16 teams playing their third and final group game.

For some teams, the final group match will be perfunctory.

That’s true for the United States and Group D. Even if they made things way too interesting against Italy.

At 2-0, Team USA has won their group, qualified for the quarter-finals and, therefore, has nothing to play for against Czechia, with the game instead serving as another—and now more needed—opportunity for head coach Kara Lawson to experiment with lineups and opportunities, gathering data about how best to deploy all the talent on her stacked squad into the quarter-finals and beyond (2:45 p.m. ET, TNT/truTV).

With Czechia already eliminated, the game between Italy and China also is rendered mostly irrelevant, as both the Italians and Chinese will advance to the single-elimination round (2:45 p.m. ET, HBO Max). Italy heads into the matchup in second place with a +6 point differential.

France, arguably Team USA’s greatest challenger, also is assured a spot in the quarter-finals, having already won Group B with a 2-0 record and +72 point differential.

Nigeria, at a winless 0-2, already is eliminated. D’Tigress will thus be playing for pride against Les Blues, who likely will use the game as a further tune up for Thursday’s quarter-finals all while not overextending key players (8:30 a.m. ET, truTV). Through two games, Marine Johannès is France’s leading scorer, averaging 17 points while playing less than 20 minutes per game; she’s also shooting 50 percent on eight 3-pointers per game. Gabby Williams and Dominique Malonga are both averaging 15.5 points per game.

Elsewhere in Group B, South Korea, currently in second place with a 1-1 mark and -8 point differential, and Hungary, also 1-1 but with a -42 point differential, are guaranteed to advance to the single-elimination round where they can then earn a quarter-final berth. The winner of the Monday game between the two teams will finish in second place in Group B giving them a more favorable single-elimination matchup, at least theoretically (8:30 a.m. ET, HBO Max).

The second-place team from Group B will play the third-place team from Group A, while Group B’s third-place finisher will meet Group A’s second-place squad.

And Group A is where things are much more interesting, as every team currently has a 1-1 record and can finish anywhere from first to fourth depending on the results of Monday’s matches.

Japan, who have lived the highs and lows of 3-point variance, face Spain, who looked like a real threat in routing Germany before failing to match the fight of Mali (11:50 a.m. ET, HBO Max). To finish in first place, Japan not only will be hoping that their 3-balls fall, but that their victory is complemented by a win by Mali, as that scenario would see the Japanese finish first. Spain, hoping for a bounceback performance from Awa Fam to support the strong play of Iyana Martín, needs their own win to come with a German win in order to take the group and advance straight to the quarter-finals.

At the same time, Germany and Mali tip off (11:50 a.m. ET, HBO Max). The Germans will have homecourt advantage, but, thus far, no other team in the tournament has played with the motivation demonstrated by Mali, who can make further history with another win over a European country. A Mali win and a Spain win would result in Mali claiming a historic group victory, becoming the first African nation to win a group at the World Cup. For Germany to win the group, ensuring that the host nation would make a quarter-final appearance, the Germans must beat Mail, and then have Japan defeat Spain.

Monday’s two Group C games also carry significant stakes.

A head-to-head showdown between Belgium and Australia will determine the group winner, with the victor advancing directly to the quarter-finals and avoiding the dramas and dangers of a single-elimination game (5:30 a.m. ET, HBO Max).

With plenty of players familiar to US-based fans, the game’s play should match the game’s stakes.

Although Emma Meesseman was unusually quiet in Belgium’s win over Puerto Rico, Austrailia would be unwise to expect a similarly subdued performance from Emma on Monday. Meesseeman is expert at balancing scoring and facilitating, depending on the demands of the game. Julie Allemand also offers Belgium a high-level offensive orchestrator who not only can partner with Meesseman but also help set up Belgium’s shooters, namely Julie Vanloo. In the win over Puerto Rico, Allemand was in top form, tallying a near triple-double of 11 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists. Vanloo remains almost automatic from deep, hitting 11 3s across Belgium’s two wins.

Australia’s ability to muck up Belgium’s beautiful offense will begin with the frontcourt pairing of Alanna Smith and Ezi Magbegor, both of whom possess the defensive talent required to neutralize Meesseman. The Opals, however, will need Smith to play. After exiting their win over Puerto Rico early with a leg injury, she did not play in Australia’s win over Türkiye on Sunday.

On the other end, the duo projects to be equally important, as Smith can spread out Belgium’s defense with her ability to shoot from distance while Magbegor can exploit their suspect rim protection with scores at the basket via rolls or drives. Magbegor is fresh off a strong offensive showing against Türkiye, scoring 21 points on 14 shots.

The Aussies also will rely on Steph Talbot to match the 3-point firepower of Belgium. She made fours 3s against Puerto Rico before doing most of her damage inside the arc against Türkiye. The Opals could also use efficient scoring from Jade Melbourne and Isobel Borlase, both of whom are capable, yet inconsistent, offensive players

At least Belgium and Australia are assured another game.

It’s win or go home for the other two teams from Group C, as the winner of Puerto Rico vs. Türkiye will claim third place and another shot to extend their tournament in the single-elimination round while the loser is done (5:30 a.m. ET, HBO Max). Puerto Rico currently is in third place, with their -28 point differential barely situating them above Türkiye and their -30 point differential.

The Puerto Ricans likely will hope for another powerful performance from Imani McGee-Stafford, as the former WNBA player put up a 25-point and 13-rebound double-double in Puerto Rico’s loss to Belgium. Another former WNBA name, Sevgi Uzun, has been the engine for Türkiye; she’s leading the team with 17.5 points and 8.5 assists per game.

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