Win for Graham, and Trump Too
Today’s notice: Graham and Trump claim victory. Kalshi had it right, this time. A new term for you: redboxing. And: A Georgia grudge may be holding up an ambassadorship.
THE LATEST
Donald Trump orchestrated Darline Graham’s appointment to her temporary seat, dropped into Myrtle Beach to stump for her and shoved a rare $800,000 in campaign cash to get out the vote — so they could both revel in victory last night as she claimed the Republican nod seeking a full, six-year Senate term. Trumpworld was quick to claim credit.
“We got the vote out where we needed to,” senior Trump political adviser James Blair told NOTUS’ Kadia Goba. “Great win for the President and for Darline.”
The president really wanted this win after story after story about his endorsement lacking firepower. Graham, who paid tribute to her late brother Lindsey after the race was called, gave the president his due: “South Carolina is truly Trump country.”
Voters made clear Graham was their thing — Rep. Ralph Norman even lost in parts of his own congressional district. His concession speech was one for the history books.
“I hate it for the state,” Norman said, noting that while he’d accept the outcome, he didn’t understand why the president got involved in the race. “I really hate it for the state. I don’t hate it for me. I don’t hate it for the family — we’re going to be fine. But we did this for service, and I hate it for the state.”
Trump also notched another victory last night with his primary pick in the Oklahoma governor’s race where former state Sen. Mike Mazzei earned the Republican nomination.
Score one for the prediction markets, too. Kalshi saw more than $25.7 million in trading around the South Carolina runoff, with Graham’s odds at around 56% when polls closed. NOTUS’ Emily Kennard dives into how prediction markets are playing a major role in the political sphere this cycle, even if most politicos aren’t yet sold on the new tool. As one strategist quipped to her, the online sites are “like degenerate gambling for political hacks.”
Open tabs: Trump’s Trade War Gives Republicans Another Midterm Headache (NOTUS); Trump Plans to Buy Midterm Ads About His Own Record (Atlantic); Pennsylvania reports first 2 measles deaths in the US this year, both people unvaccinated (AP); Ex-School Board Chair Wins Race to Fill David Scott’s House Seat in Georgia (NYT); FEMA crew broke law by skipping homes with Trump signs, watchdog says (WaPo)
From the campaign trail
Wish-list Wednesday: Democrats have made a point of calling out big-money politics this cycle. But buried on many of their campaign websites, NOTUS’ Taylor Giorno and Dave Levinthal report, are wishlists that many have been using to skirt federal laws against coordination with megadonors. The so-called “redbox” sends a not-so-subtle message: In case you have the money to spend, here’s where and how we’d suggest doing so.
Democratic and Republican political operatives agreed that the redboxing requests are a wink-wink, nod-nod at those super PACs and outside groups that have the big cash to spend.
And on the cash note, NOTUS’ Avani Kalra reports that while dozens of Democratic candidates have pledged to reject donations from corporate political action committees, in reality, a simple workaround is enabling the flow of money from business interests to the campaign accounts of those very same candidates.
By accepting contributions from Democratic leadership PACs, the candidates who have called for getting money out of politics have been able to benefit from that corporate cash. Some money-in-politics experts say there isn’t the same level of influence between candidate and corporate cash as there is with money from leadership PACs. One operative told Avani that while the corporate cash and leadership PAC money is different, they are two tiers to the same flow of cash.
From the White House
When Trump offered to make Burt Jones the U.S. ambassador to Germany, the president asked for one thing in return: for Jones, who had lost to Rick Jackson in the Republican primary for Georgia governor, to endorse his former rival.
NOTUS’ Ben T.N. Mause reports that Jones has been unwilling to make that deal, putting his nomination in doubt. Sources familiar told Ben that Jones’ team had its own demands in return for an endorsement, including a $25 million settlement over lawsuits the two filed against each other in the primary. The blood, it seems, may just be too bad.
ON NOTUS PODCAST
From your favorite podcast app: Our reporters spent time on the campaign trail with House Speaker Mike Johnson as he works to keep his majority and his leadership post. Reporters Oriana González, Reese Gorman and Kadia Goba shared their reporting on how each party is making its pitch.
NOTUS PERSPECTIVES
The better things look for Democrats in 2026, writes Matt K. Lewis, the worse they could be in 2028.
NOTUS METRO
Sign up for our local newsletter, written by Martin Austermuhle and Zara Norman.
Local news: What to Do in the D.C. Area This Weekend, by Rebecca Ritzel
Sports desk: How Denzel Washington Is Helping the Commanders Build Their Defense, by Martenzie Johnson
NEW ON NOTUS
A federal immigration agent who is at the center of an interstate clash after he shot a Venezuelan man earlier this year has discussed plans to relocate to a Mexican beach town with his extramarital girlfriend, NOTUS’ Jose Pagliery reports.
Minnesota attorneys, who are seeking to extradite ICE agent Christian Castro to face charges in the state, raised the discussions to a federal judge in court records. Gov. Greg Abbott has declined to allow the agent’s transfer from Texas.
More: Trump Asks the Supreme Court to Back Asylum Ban at U.S.-Mexico Border, by Jackie Llanos
Hasan Piker Roils Michigan Senate Race, by Jenna Monnin
NOT US
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The newsletter was produced by Thomas Burr and Andrew Burton. Photo by Mic Smith/AP.