What happens if Australia beats Egypt in the World Cup?

Beat Egypt, and Australia’s World Cup run gets even more interesting — a possible match against one of the tournament’s best, and arguably the best player the game has ever seen.

With little separating the two sides, the Socceroos will take on Egypt at Dallas Stadium on Saturday at 4am AEST, in what is expected to be one of the most closely fought matches of the World Cup Round of 32.

It will be an important moment in the history of football for both teams. You can watch the match live on SBS and SBS On Demand, or go to one of the many live sites across the country showing it.

The Pharaohs will be playing their first knockout match in their tournament history, while Australia will be chasing their first win in a World Cup knockout match.

If FIFA rankings are enough to go by it will be a close match (Australia are ranked 28th and Egypt are ranked 26th in the world) — but a win over Egypt could turn Australia’s tournament into something special.

Here’s how the Socceroos’ path to a World Cup victory could unfold (odds: 1 per cent).

The 46 per cent

The Opta supercomputer, which forecasts outcomes of sports tournaments, has predicted that the Socceroos have a 46.02 per cent chance of beating Egypt.

With a win, Australia will qualify for the Round of 16 and will play the winner of the match between Argentina and Cape Verde, who will face off on Saturday at 8am.

Opta predicts Argentina and its superstar, Lionel Messi, have more than an 87 per cent chance of winning that match.

But Cape Verde has already achieved the impossible by qualifying from the group stage, after the tiny debutante nation stunned the world to draw with Spain, Uruguay and Saudi Arabia.

The Round of 16 match is scheduled to be played in Atlanta on 8 July, at 2am AEST.

The 11 per cent

Let’s consider the possibility that the Socceroos pull off a miracle and beat the winner of the Argentina-Cape Verde match.

Then they will have to fly to Kansas City to play in the quarter-finals on Sunday July 12, at 1pm AEST. Opta gives an 11.2 per cent chance of this happening.

The other team in the quarter-final will be one of Switzerland, Algeria, Colombia and Ghana. Opta gives Colombia the highest chance among the four.

The 4 per cent

There’s no harm in dreaming, so let’s dream on.

Let’s say the Socceroos make it past the quarter-finals — something the supercomputer gives a 4.47 per cent chance of.

They’ll then play the World Cup’s semi-final at 5am AEST on 16 July in Atlanta.

The other team in the semis will be one of Brazil, Norway, Mexico, or England, with the winners of Brazil-Norway and Mexico-England meeting in the quarter-finals on Sunday 12 July.

According to Opta’s prediction, Brazil has the highest chance of qualifying.

The 1 per cent

And finally, there is the 1.06 per cent possibility that the Socceroos beat all their opponents and qualify for the final.

The final will take place on Monday 20 July, at 5am AEST, in New York.

Opta predicts that France and Argentina have the highest chances of playing in the final, with France having a 45.44 per cent chance of winning the tournament.

You can watch all 104 matches of the FIFA World Cup 2026™ live, free and exclusive on SBS, SBS VICELAND and SBS On Demand.

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